Profile for Jumpin Salmon

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Two envelopes paradox in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #32
So an even better option might be to demand cash instead of check, punch Bob Barker in the gut, grab both envelopes, and run off stage, hopefully finding an exit before the wimpy security guards wipe their mouths and come looking for their phones so they can call the real police.

*this message sponsored by low blood sugars everywhere*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #30
The way I see it is that the matter was decided back when Trinity announced me as the "right."

Everything after that (except of course for any blather from mods or admins) was fluff that added nothing to my rightness.

It is likely that bob barker would not have 100 thou to give away. it is possible that a company would have that amount.

what would make the puzzle far more interesting would be if instead of 50% it was 10%.

50,000 or 500,000. or 5,000.

Edit - stareye added something while i was writing that involves math and stuff. read at your own peril.

*this message funded by the price is right, but they aren't, so that is wrong*

[ Thursday, June 23, 2005 18:26: Message edited by: Jumpin' Salmon ]
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
small rebellion - in the sewers in Blades of Avernum
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #6
yeah, the dialogue there is pretty crappy. wander off to the left and you'll see that a new bridge exists. prepare for a brief battle.

*this message sponsored by the international obfuscation panel*

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quote:
Originally written by Kelandon:

Well, I'm at least pretty sure that Salmon is losing.


Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #10
Imposible!

Pretend that you don't get to look in the envelopes, that they are defined as holding amounts K and 2K.

You do your math and figure out that you stand to gain K/4 if you swap.

So you swap.

If you swap again you statistically stand to gain K/4 again.

By this logic, you are always losing if you don't take that other envelope.

That is why I say $12,500 is garbage logic. Swap if you like, but I stand behind my decision to evaluate the resources of the game show.

Edit- removed words in excess of what is necessary, retained vowels.
*this message sponsored by jack and diane*

[ Thursday, June 23, 2005 11:18: Message edited by: Jumpin' Salmon ]
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #8
The $12,500 is wrong.

If you don't open the envelope, and you are offered the other one instead, you should take it for the same reasons. But!!! Those reasons still exist when you are holding envelope 2 and glancing over at envelope 1.

That is the paradox.

As for the 3 door thing, that is different, and always switch your choice.
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #4
I think the paradox is that you can use simple statistics to determine that you should always have the other envelope. I think it comes out to a probable 25% gain if you swap. But it doesn't matter in the end, because those numbers are wrong. My solution?

What gameshow? What is the history of the gameshow?

If you think that $50,000 is a lot to them, keep it. If it seems like not a lot to them, swap. The paradox here is remembering it how much they are willing to risk, not how greedy the contestant is likely to get.

*this message sponsored by the half is better than nothing ad hoc support group*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
The Official Electioneering Topic in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #85
Well then, I guess everyone is happy that Kel (the manhood typist) set up his archives for all the BoE scenarios. Plus Bixler has the Alexandria, so all the scenarios are safe.

My feeling is that Linda and the rest are in this for the paycheck and the business. We are in this for the community. There is no crossover between the two unless the community threatens to interfere with the business. She may have mismanaged from your perspective, but if she's still with the company then it must not have been too bad from the business end of things.

*this message sponsored by dogs that love to chase squirrels*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Dam energy pulse mind crystal in The Avernum Trilogy
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #12
Then you clearly weren't wreckless enough. I managed to drop my wad of cash in the first inn I found in Krizsan. I mean really! Spend all that time cooped up in caves drinking cave skank beer and mushroom whiskey and you wouldn't want to drink real barley and malt based drinks? And smoke real tobacco and skribbane instead of those ToM altered things?

Of course I used the darn editor, I needed to fix my fixes!

*this message brought to you by the compulsive in all of us*

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WWtNSD?
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Great Debate Live? in General
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Member # 5755
Profile #7
So drakey then will be handling the capture and display of the debate log? It needs to be a 3rd party that is trusted by the community to maintain the logs in their virgin format. I would volunteer, but I neither care enough nor have time enough to bother.

*this post sponsored by the hum and the drum of life*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Great Debate Live? in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #3
Isn't the point of live debates to showcase to the PUBLIC the reactions and flaws of each candidate?

*this message sponsored by irresponsible voters everywhere*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Orb of thralni in Blades of Avernum Editor
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Member # 5755
Profile #25
for instance, A Small Rebellion uses the file name stealth (stealth.bas, stealth.txt, and stealthdata.txt) for the important files.

your scenario has the same thing, you need that file ending in data.txt since it has all those custom dealies you want. actually you create them and place them in there since otherwise they can't exist. like thuryl says, check out one of them to see how it's done.

*this message funded by loki, but the check turned into a bill*

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WWtNSD?
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Orb of thralni in Blades of Avernum
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #25
for instance, A Small Rebellion uses the file name stealth (stealth.bas, stealth.txt, and stealthdata.txt) for the important files.

your scenario has the same thing, you need that file ending in data.txt since it has all those custom dealies you want. actually you create them and place them in there since otherwise they can't exist. like thuryl says, check out one of them to see how it's done.

*this message funded by loki, but the check turned into a bill*

--------------------
quote:
Originally written by Kelandon:

Well, I'm at least pretty sure that Salmon is losing.


Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
small rebellion - in the sewers in Blades of Avernum
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #4
you start by getting dropped in the nw quadrant. clean out that area, grab the boat and use it to get into the sw quadrant. clean out that area and move to the east half of the building. wander around killing and maiming and gathering any special keys you may find. like Marx said, manipulate any switches you find and expect big results. at some point you will be able to complete the ne quadrant and then move back to the se quadrant to chat up the ghost and leave.

hope that helps

*this message sponsored by bring your dog to work day*

--------------------
quote:
Originally written by Kelandon:

Well, I'm at least pretty sure that Salmon is losing.


Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
The Official Electioneering Topic in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #75
Still taking out your frustrations on innocent bystanders? Why not try to fire Mariann?

*this message sponsored by the better late than never pundits club*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
The Official Electioneering Topic in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #19
Hmmm

The way I see it, and I have been around a while, is that a good moderator can turn a bad thread around and make it good without locking.

An excellent moderator can see a bad thread coming from 3 days away and hope that it doesn't happen.

It's a shame that some folks find this so darn important and reality threatening that they save stuff to use later as a weapon or protection. I mean really, who does give a rat's behind what happened in a forum 3 years ago.

Y'all gonna tell me to shut up for butting in here, but your little grudge has turned a really fun and engaging topic into a steaming pile of ...

Thanks.

*this message is funded by jumping salmon everywhere*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Internet Explorer Troubles in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #28
I downloaded Firefox in November, and it still sits, zipped up, showing just under 5 Mb.

I only get a 24k connection speed and it didn't take as long as I predicted. Maybe 90 minutes?

*this message sponsored by the PSA message development committee*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Avernum V. Exile in General
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Member # 5755
Profile #15
Some of us already have that power, we just haven't gotten to you yet.

My first game was Exile 1 in demo, then Exile 2 in demo, then full Exile 3. That was good stuff. Avernum seems too soft by comparison, but I prefer BoA to BoE(demo). Go figure.

*this message sponsored by the curvy cookie*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Your most memorable High School moment in General
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Member # 5755
Profile #32
And GW is looking for terrorists in Iraq?

Terror, thy name is student.

*this message sponsored by Al-Jazeera and the Saudi Royal family*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Elections : The Conspiracy Thread in General
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Member # 5755
Profile #27
**** News **** Flash **** News *****

In a recent widely read memo, Zeviz has announced that his candidacy was a FRAUD! Immediately upon receiving notice that his controller, Alec the Custer, had returned from his meditational retreat, Zeviz quickly bowed down and placed his full support in Alec's camp.

Well, this reporter now wonders how many times this will occur before this "election" is actually held. Candidates must hold their ground and fight to the bitter end. False candidates would do themselves justice by renouncing quietly, preferably by having a close friend or relative explain that "due to health reasons..."

With the hypothetical election only some unknown distance in the future, there are many hearts to be broken and votes to be won. Stay tuned to this channel for the latest news, weather, and spelling changes.

*this message funded by the overflowing campaign coffers of those who never got a vote*

[ Tuesday, June 21, 2005 21:19: Message edited by: Jumpin' Salmon ]
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Elections : The Conspiracy Thread in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #22
**** **** News Flash **** ****

From preaching nihilism to understanding my concerns, Sarachim is all over the place. Concerned parents are warned to be alarmed and to placed their coddled children out of certain imminent danger. As doomsday approaches fear and loathing will be upon us and we will be looking for the bright star to guide us in our desperate avoidance of EVOL and curvy scorched world manhood typing cookie throwing . . . ...

umm. time for my medicine.

*this message should have been deleted. sponsored by the makers of valium, long live the two party system*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Elections? in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #172
CoC aside, I continue to let my fingers do the walking on the keyboard. Proclivities aside, Kel should do anything he likes in his own private space.

I would like to congratulate the manipulator of these elections on the 5 topics and 365 messages that have been (more or less) devoted to this subject.

*this message joins many other abused and maligned footers in the dustbin of general*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Elections : The Conspiracy Thread in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #13
there have been conspiracies in place long before Alec bravely decided to announce the unofficial elections. unfortunately even the best conspiracy theory will whither away if not nurtured in the appropriate setting. that is the purpose of this nursery of conspiracies.

Fact - these are not officially sanctioned or supported electoral events

Fact - moderators are running in the elections

Fact - being a moderator is super cool

Logical conclusion - the world will explode if the election is allowed to stand. by passively standing by and PERMITTING this election the moderational staff are not exercising proper control over the plebes. it is not for us to DEMAND things from our betters. if moderators can be elected by majority rule, rather than through the arcane voodoo rituals currently favored by this administration, it puts into jeopardy the worth of every life lost, every drop of blood spilled, and every tear shed in the creation of these forums and this great community.

Therefore - I plead with you, my fellow conspirators, cast aside the wickedness of Alec and the evilness he casts onto this community. See the divisiveness he has brought her. Witness the schism errupting where Zeviz and Sarachim must taunt like they were mere words. Tremble that Dolphin has been corrupted and is willing to employ "curves" in the furtherment of her campaign. Friends, cast aside the electoral ballot and be free again, free to spam within tolerances and post when you will.

The power is yours, it is yours to seize.

*this message funded by the diatribe society of the lesser antilles*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Elections : The Conspiracy Thread in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #0
I've got some definite vibes that there are conspiracies brewing here. I've noticed recent action in the bullpen (ie. mod room) that may have implications in the upcoming elections. Drakey has been around more, and is likely reading up on all the candidates. Zeviz's latest meglomaniacal creation is looming on the horizon.

Many good candidates, so few votes.

This is the time and the place to bring forth all the conspiracies before it is too late.

*this topic has finally been funded after three rejection letters*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Your gift or talent in General
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #78
My experience is that once a person has been placed in a stereotype (ie. through race, religion, brains, genetic differences) it is all but impossible to change that perception away from the stereotype. It may have something to do with the need to explain things by using similes. Strange circumstances are therefor grouped together under larger and more familiar headings.

It would seem that that the only way to avoid that situation is to be intimately aware of either a person, cognizant of all varieties of behaviour (and misbehaviour), or so completely open-minded that preconceptions don't exist. I feel the last situation would put a person at a competative disadvantage.

Huh, well that was random. I guess what I meant in all that was it would be almost impossible to "escape" once you have been classified in some manner (as has happened to ADoS and Eagle.) An escape method that is being used by Eagle is to distance himself from the people that label him, and hopefully he can create a stigma of his own choosing for this new location.

*this message may have been partially funded by two well heeled candidates for moderator*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
General Moderator Election Poll in General
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Member # 5755
Profile #10
As a voter that is not a candidate, I have a valuable service to offer to prospective moderators. I am willing to entertain offers, as long as they are only for entertainment purposes only.

*this message has been pre-approved by various candidate support groups*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00

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