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Avernum V ideas in Avernum 4
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #250
quote:
Originally written by Valcrist:

Well.. What ending is better? The ending where Rentar dies or the one the she lives?
Well, that depends on whether you want her to live or die, now doesn't it? :P

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Some sort of re-hello to spiderweb? in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #42
Sedape, apparently.

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Ain't Gonna Happen in Geneforge... in Geneforge Series
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #60
She.

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
It's like PMS, only with numbers. in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #17
quote:
Originally written by This Space For Rent:

Thuryl and Aran have both probably been in the top ten every time, but I didn't bother to go back and check.
Well, there's at least one month where I haven't been in the top ten, on account of my abortive attempt to leave.

I'm supposed to be writing my thesis. What the hell am I doing here? Seriously.

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Ain't Gonna Happen in Geneforge... in Geneforge Series
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #56
Remember, the relation between energy and mass depends on the speed of light. Maybe the speed of light in the Geneforge universe is just really, really slow, so a given amount of mass has less energy in it.

(Okay, so a physicist could almost certainly explain why a major change in the speed of light would have catastrophic consequences for the universe. So don't think too hard about it.)

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Oopsie Daisy (Ver 5.5) in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #2
quote:
Originally written by Spoilt Salmon:

Have you ever been thinking over some conversation that happened in the recent past and realised where you could have improved on a response, or actually made a response rather than stare, slack jawed, and nod?
The French call that esprit d'escalier, or "staircase wit" -- the retort you think of as you take the stairs on your way out.

On that note:

"Well, the good news is that the artificial gravity machine worked..."

[ Thursday, August 17, 2006 01:42: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Shaper hypocrisy vs. Shaper tragedy (SPOILERS) in Geneforge Series
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #171
quote:
Originally written by Retlaw May:

I read Harrison Bergeron last year and it was one of my favorite storries. The only thing that annoyed me is that the Handicap Gerneral shouldn't have had any better aim than anyone else, so how could she shoot them both dead in two shots?
Because the story was written by Kurt Vonnegut, not Ayn Rand. A happy ending would send the wrong message. Also, it's a freaking shotgun; stand close enough and it's hard to miss. :P

[ Wednesday, August 16, 2006 01:07: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #63
quote:
Originally written by saunders:

Biological factors such as differences in sperm which affect the gender balance in families in real life are discounted in the problem.
The coin has no memory, no matter how many times it is tossed!

Certainly, they have to be discounted for the "correct" solution to be correct. But the problem as stated doesn't say they are, which was, I think, SoT's point. :P

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #61
The trick is that for the above argument to hold, the coin flips have to be both fair and independent. The conditions of the problem as stated require the former (at least for the population as a whole), but not the latter. A coin that's turned up heads three times in a row isn't any more likely to turn up heads than tails on the next flip, but a couple that's had three girls in a row may well be more likely to have a girl than a boy as their next child.

To balance this out (and make the overall population odds of a couple's next child being a boy be 50%), a couple that's had three boys in a row would have to be more likely to have another boy than a girl as their next child if they had one, but we don't see those extra boys because couples stop at one boy. Therefore, if couples that have already had a girl have a greater than 50% chance of their next child being a girl as well, and if all couples stop having children if and only if they have had a boy, more girls than boys get born.

The moral of the story is that biology and statistics don't mix. :P

[ Wednesday, August 16, 2006 00:22: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #44
quote:
Originally written by Thin Air:

Perhaps this is what SoT meant by kibitzing, but the distinction between conception and birth is important. I'm not sure if this is true, but I heard somewhere that although more male embryos are conceived, (proportionally) more female babies are born, evening things out.

So in this scenario he stated that the chances of a male or a female baby being born were both 50%, but said nothing about conception. I don't suppose this is what he is getting at, but if lots more female babies are conceived, then inevitably more female babies will be born.

You just performed a reductio ad absurdum on your own argument. Think about it. :P

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Lark's Scrolls in Avernum 4
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #1
They're in a box in a storeroom in the northwest corner of the fort.

Don't worry, everyone forgets this.

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #42
quote:
Originally written by Student of Trinity:

So in this case the measure issue doesn't really seem so relevant. If I find $20,000, or $200,000, I just don't see that there's any appreciable information to be extracted. Certainly not in comparison to the 200% vs. 50% payoff factor. So I think there must instead be a problem with minmax, probably related to the fact that this is a one-shot game.
Yeah, it was my feeling that there was more to it than my analysis captured. After all, even in the repeated game, the amount of money you currently have gives you information -- it tells you when you have enough money and should stop playing. (Since the correct strategy in practice is obviously going to be "play until you have enough money", rather than "play forever".)

quote:
Another little statistical puzzle. I once heard the following theory attributed to George Bernard Shaw. Suppose the average probabilities of a baby being born male or female are equal (and to forestall pointless kibitzing, let both be 50% for the sake of this discussion). Nevertheless (the theory argues) there end up being more girls born than boys, because many families want to have at least one boy, so they keep having children until they get one, resulting in disproportionately many families with several sisters and one baby brother.

The easy version of the puzzle, which is the one I heard, is to show that this theory couldn't possibly work. The slightly harder version, which I believe I invented, is to show that it easily could.
The fact that the chance of a randomly-selected couple conceiving a boy as their next child is 50% does not imply that the chance of a boy is 50% for every particular couple. Am I on the right track? :P

[ Tuesday, August 15, 2006 01:00: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Spiderweb ? Metaphors For Life in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #3
quote:
Originally written by Synergy:

I was patiently worming my way home through traffic this evening, and oddly found myself contemplating the metaphorical mysticalities of the world of Spiderweb.
Is DUI not a crime where you live?

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Love in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #52
Well, it's a little hard to survive after you've donated both kidneys, both lungs and a liver to people who needed them... :P

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #37
quote:
Originally written by Student of Trinity:

At a conference a few years ago, someone who seemed authoritative at the time propounded a paradox somewhat reminiscent of the Monty Hall problem, but with envelopes of cash, and doubling the money in between two choice stages, or something like that. Point was, it was supposed to be a truly unresolved problem, after a fair amount of study by professionals, at least at that time.

But that's as far as I remember. Ring any bells for anyone here?

There are two situations you could be thinking about:

#1: In each round of the game, you have a 50% chance of doubling your current amount of money and a 50% chance of halving it. Since you have the potential to win an unbounded amount and only lose a finite amount (and can never lose all your money), if you have all the time in the world, you can keep playing until you have an arbitrarily large amount of money. This seems counterintuitive to some people, since on average after a large number of rounds your expected number of wins is 0 (which would put you back where you started), but there's nothing all that mysterious about it: you have as much chance of having a net total of 1 win as a net total of -1 win, and 1 win wins you more than -1 win loses you.

********

#2: You're given a choice between two envelopes, A and B. One has X amount of money, the other has 2X amount of money. You pick envelope A. It has $20,000 in it. Then you're given an option to switch to the other, unknown envelope, which contains either double or half the money of the one you picked. Since we established in situation #1 that you stand to gain by switching, you switch.

But wait! The logic applies to your current situation as well; the unknown envelope you're holding could just as well contain X and the envelope you originally picked could contain 2X, so you still stand to either double or halve your money by switching. This line of argument would seem to support switching back to your original envelope, but obviously switching between the two envelopes ad infinitum would be silly, so did you really stand to gain anything by switching in the first place?

The obvious trick is that the game in #2 isn't quite equivalent to #1, since you're really only playing one round of it -- you can't win an arbitrarily large amount of money by switching repeatedly. The second and more important trick is that there's no such thing as a uniform probability distribution extending to infinity, so in order to make a sensible decision about whether to switch, you have to have some idea about the actual probability of the game show putting a particular amount of money in the envelopes. In other words, the fact that the envelope you picked contains $20,000 is information that you have to use in making your decision. (If you're not told what's in either envelope, then obviously the two envelopes are equivalent and whether you switch is irrelevant.)

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
armor and whatnot in Avernum 4
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #3
Karma is not his name. *i is his name. Karma is his karma. See, there's a karma rating below my name too.

[ Monday, August 14, 2006 13:08: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Grail's Workshop in Blades of Avernum
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #1
Did you remember to set each creature's memory cell #3 to the appropriate talk node value?

[ Monday, August 14, 2006 03:29: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
nature lore: what is your level? in Blades of Avernum
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #5
quote:
Originally written by Imban:

Highest member counts, rather than total, I think.
Actually, that depends entirely on how the designer chooses to count it. :P

As far as I'm aware, Jeff's scenarios always check the total.

Anyway, I make a new HLPM party for every scenario, so my party doesn't usually have any Nature Lore at all unless I expect to need it in the scenario I'm playing.

[ Monday, August 14, 2006 01:07: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Scenarios Not Showing Up in Blades of Avernum
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #5
Holy cats, it's RoR. Welcome back!

[ Monday, August 14, 2006 01:02: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #29
quote:
Originally written by WiKiSpidweb:

Joe and Bob go to two days of batting practice, Joe has the better batting average on both the first and second days. Bob has the better overall average after both days. How is this possible?
Alorael already answered this one, but I'd just like to point out that this is an example of a statistical phenomenon known as Simpson's paradox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox), and it's not uncommon in real data.

[ Monday, August 14, 2006 00:37: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Quick thought about boss battles in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #1
But if bosses don't have health bars, how are they supposed to get that low-fat energy boost to get them through the morning?

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #20
Okay, all y'all can stop poking Alec now; I've had a little talk with him over AIM and he's more or less convinced.

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #17
If you still don't trust the arguments, collect some empirical evidence for yourself: try the simulation and see how many times you win by switching and how many times you win by not switching; I just tried out 100 runs for each and won 32 by staying and 62 by switching. Pretty convincing. (The source code is available if you don't trust that it's an actual simulation.)

quote:
But if I have to stick to my first choice every time, there isn't a second game, now is there?
If you choose to stick to your first choice every time, there's no second game either.

Believing that your chance of winning is 50% if you don't switch is magical thinking; it assumes that somehow information given to you by the host can benefit you even if you don't act on it.

Oh, and in answer to your previous question about why the two games aren't independent: it's because the host can't open a door that you've already picked in the first game. As a result, his opening a door gives you information about which of the doors you didn't pick is wrong, but no information about whether your door is right or wrong; therefore, your chance of winning if you stay with your original door remains at 1 in 3.

[ Saturday, August 12, 2006 14:51: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Dialogue coding error (mine) in Blades of Avernum
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #3
You'll also have to either shorten it or break it up into two separate text fields -- they're limited to 255 characters each, and that's around 280.

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Introducing Leopard in General
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Member # 869
Profile Homepage #33
The operating system mostly just goes by OS X now anyway. :P

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The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00

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