Profile for Thuryl
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Displayed name | Thuryl |
Member number | 869 |
Title | ...b10010b... |
Postcount | 9973 |
Homepage | http://thuryl.desperance.net/blades.html |
Registered | Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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Avernum V ideas in Avernum 4 | |
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written Saturday, August 19 2006 00:25
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quote:Well, that depends on whether you want her to live or die, now doesn't it? :P -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Some sort of re-hello to spiderweb? in General | |
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written Friday, August 18 2006 16:39
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Sedape, apparently. -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Ain't Gonna Happen in Geneforge... in Geneforge Series | |
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written Friday, August 18 2006 00:41
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She. -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
It's like PMS, only with numbers. in General | |
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written Friday, August 18 2006 00:04
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quote:Well, there's at least one month where I haven't been in the top ten, on account of my abortive attempt to leave. I'm supposed to be writing my thesis. What the hell am I doing here? Seriously. -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Ain't Gonna Happen in Geneforge... in Geneforge Series | |
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written Thursday, August 17 2006 01:52
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Remember, the relation between energy and mass depends on the speed of light. Maybe the speed of light in the Geneforge universe is just really, really slow, so a given amount of mass has less energy in it. (Okay, so a physicist could almost certainly explain why a major change in the speed of light would have catastrophic consequences for the universe. So don't think too hard about it.) -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Oopsie Daisy (Ver 5.5) in General | |
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written Thursday, August 17 2006 01:09
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quote:The French call that esprit d'escalier, or "staircase wit" -- the retort you think of as you take the stairs on your way out. On that note: "Well, the good news is that the artificial gravity machine worked..." [ Thursday, August 17, 2006 01:42: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Shaper hypocrisy vs. Shaper tragedy (SPOILERS) in Geneforge Series | |
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written Wednesday, August 16 2006 01:01
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quote:Because the story was written by Kurt Vonnegut, not Ayn Rand. A happy ending would send the wrong message. Also, it's a freaking shotgun; stand close enough and it's hard to miss. :P [ Wednesday, August 16, 2006 01:07: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Wednesday, August 16 2006 00:27
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quote:Certainly, they have to be discounted for the "correct" solution to be correct. But the problem as stated doesn't say they are, which was, I think, SoT's point. :P -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Wednesday, August 16 2006 00:16
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The trick is that for the above argument to hold, the coin flips have to be both fair and independent. The conditions of the problem as stated require the former (at least for the population as a whole), but not the latter. A coin that's turned up heads three times in a row isn't any more likely to turn up heads than tails on the next flip, but a couple that's had three girls in a row may well be more likely to have a girl than a boy as their next child. To balance this out (and make the overall population odds of a couple's next child being a boy be 50%), a couple that's had three boys in a row would have to be more likely to have another boy than a girl as their next child if they had one, but we don't see those extra boys because couples stop at one boy. Therefore, if couples that have already had a girl have a greater than 50% chance of their next child being a girl as well, and if all couples stop having children if and only if they have had a boy, more girls than boys get born. The moral of the story is that biology and statistics don't mix. :P [ Wednesday, August 16, 2006 00:22: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Tuesday, August 15 2006 04:09
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quote:You just performed a reductio ad absurdum on your own argument. Think about it. :P -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Lark's Scrolls in Avernum 4 | |
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written Tuesday, August 15 2006 04:03
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They're in a box in a storeroom in the northwest corner of the fort. Don't worry, everyone forgets this. -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Tuesday, August 15 2006 00:53
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quote:Yeah, it was my feeling that there was more to it than my analysis captured. After all, even in the repeated game, the amount of money you currently have gives you information -- it tells you when you have enough money and should stop playing. (Since the correct strategy in practice is obviously going to be "play until you have enough money", rather than "play forever".) quote:The fact that the chance of a randomly-selected couple conceiving a boy as their next child is 50% does not imply that the chance of a boy is 50% for every particular couple. Am I on the right track? :P [ Tuesday, August 15, 2006 01:00: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Spiderweb ? Metaphors For Life in General | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 23:48
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quote:Is DUI not a crime where you live? -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Love in General | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 23:46
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Well, it's a little hard to survive after you've donated both kidneys, both lungs and a liver to people who needed them... :P -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 13:55
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quote:There are two situations you could be thinking about: #1: In each round of the game, you have a 50% chance of doubling your current amount of money and a 50% chance of halving it. Since you have the potential to win an unbounded amount and only lose a finite amount (and can never lose all your money), if you have all the time in the world, you can keep playing until you have an arbitrarily large amount of money. This seems counterintuitive to some people, since on average after a large number of rounds your expected number of wins is 0 (which would put you back where you started), but there's nothing all that mysterious about it: you have as much chance of having a net total of 1 win as a net total of -1 win, and 1 win wins you more than -1 win loses you. ******** #2: You're given a choice between two envelopes, A and B. One has X amount of money, the other has 2X amount of money. You pick envelope A. It has $20,000 in it. Then you're given an option to switch to the other, unknown envelope, which contains either double or half the money of the one you picked. Since we established in situation #1 that you stand to gain by switching, you switch. But wait! The logic applies to your current situation as well; the unknown envelope you're holding could just as well contain X and the envelope you originally picked could contain 2X, so you still stand to either double or halve your money by switching. This line of argument would seem to support switching back to your original envelope, but obviously switching between the two envelopes ad infinitum would be silly, so did you really stand to gain anything by switching in the first place? The obvious trick is that the game in #2 isn't quite equivalent to #1, since you're really only playing one round of it -- you can't win an arbitrarily large amount of money by switching repeatedly. The second and more important trick is that there's no such thing as a uniform probability distribution extending to infinity, so in order to make a sensible decision about whether to switch, you have to have some idea about the actual probability of the game show putting a particular amount of money in the envelopes. In other words, the fact that the envelope you picked contains $20,000 is information that you have to use in making your decision. (If you're not told what's in either envelope, then obviously the two envelopes are equivalent and whether you switch is irrelevant.) -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
armor and whatnot in Avernum 4 | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 13:07
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Karma is not his name. *i is his name. Karma is his karma. See, there's a karma rating below my name too. [ Monday, August 14, 2006 13:08: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Grail's Workshop in Blades of Avernum | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 03:27
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Did you remember to set each creature's memory cell #3 to the appropriate talk node value? [ Monday, August 14, 2006 03:29: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
nature lore: what is your level? in Blades of Avernum | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 01:05
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quote:Actually, that depends entirely on how the designer chooses to count it. :P As far as I'm aware, Jeff's scenarios always check the total. Anyway, I make a new HLPM party for every scenario, so my party doesn't usually have any Nature Lore at all unless I expect to need it in the scenario I'm playing. [ Monday, August 14, 2006 01:07: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Scenarios Not Showing Up in Blades of Avernum | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 01:01
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Holy cats, it's RoR. Welcome back! [ Monday, August 14, 2006 01:02: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Monday, August 14 2006 00:35
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quote:Alorael already answered this one, but I'd just like to point out that this is an example of a statistical phenomenon known as Simpson's paradox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox), and it's not uncommon in real data. [ Monday, August 14, 2006 00:37: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Quick thought about boss battles in Geneforge 4: Rebellion | |
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written Sunday, August 13 2006 05:12
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But if bosses don't have health bars, how are they supposed to get that low-fat energy boost to get them through the morning? -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Saturday, August 12 2006 15:08
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Okay, all y'all can stop poking Alec now; I've had a little talk with him over AIM and he's more or less convinced. -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General | |
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written Saturday, August 12 2006 14:28
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If you still don't trust the arguments, collect some empirical evidence for yourself: try the simulation and see how many times you win by switching and how many times you win by not switching; I just tried out 100 runs for each and won 32 by staying and 62 by switching. Pretty convincing. (The source code is available if you don't trust that it's an actual simulation.) quote:If you choose to stick to your first choice every time, there's no second game either. Believing that your chance of winning is 50% if you don't switch is magical thinking; it assumes that somehow information given to you by the host can benefit you even if you don't act on it. Oh, and in answer to your previous question about why the two games aren't independent: it's because the host can't open a door that you've already picked in the first game. As a result, his opening a door gives you information about which of the doors you didn't pick is wrong, but no information about whether your door is right or wrong; therefore, your chance of winning if you stay with your original door remains at 1 in 3. [ Saturday, August 12, 2006 14:51: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Dialogue coding error (mine) in Blades of Avernum | |
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written Saturday, August 12 2006 04:59
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You'll also have to either shorten it or break it up into two separate text fields -- they're limited to 255 characters each, and that's around 280. -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
Introducing Leopard in General | |
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written Friday, August 11 2006 23:42
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The operating system mostly just goes by OS X now anyway. :P -------------------- The Empire Always Loses: This Time For Sure! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |