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Old physics question in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #14
Thanks for the tip. Next time, I'll try these instead.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #59
For the two boxes brain scanner problem, I would chug a six-pack, then choose, in the hopes of throwing off the machine.

Oh, about the hanging: Ash Lael and Thuryl have it right. There was nothing wrong with the prisoner's reasoning day-by-day, as it were, but globally his argument pulled the rug out from under itself, because his conclusion contradicted a crucial premise. The interesting and subtle thing about the paradox is that the premise which is contradicted is not the assumption that the sentence is valid, but only that the prisoner knows that the sentence is valid. What's weird about it all is that the sentence only turns out to be valid because of the impossibility of the prisoner knowing the sentence to be valid.

What is Newcomb's Paradox?

[ Saturday, June 25, 2005 05:09: Message edited by: Student of Trinity ]

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Can anyone figure out this riddle? in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #8
I ran a D&D campaign eons ago in which I had two identical guys pop up and declare that one would lie while the other wouldn't, etc. Then the party had to ask them about some dire decision. Of course, in my version, both guys were just lying from the start, and the whole thing was a trap.

[ Saturday, June 25, 2005 04:50: Message edited by: Student of Trinity ]

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Avernum I: The Movie in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #32
I think it won't be too long before talented amateurs will be able to make home-made all-computer-graphics movies that will be indistinguishable from any Hollywood production. Pixels are pixels, and eventually there will be shareware libraries of actors, scenery, special effects -- whatever you want. Blades of Hollywood, in effect. So I expect to live to see Avernum, the Movie.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Differences between countries, cultural and otherwise. in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #21
Actually it isn't just plurality-takes-all, first-past-the-post elections that make the American two party system. Canada and the United Kingdom, for two, use the same scheme, and not proportional representation of any kind. The major difference is that in the British-style parliamentary system, the executive is drawn from the leading party in the legislature. Why this would make all the difference, though, I'm not sure. Probably the real reasons are just lots of random historical factors.

In most multi-party parliamentary systems, at any one time there are usually only two parties big enough to be likely to form the government. The remaining parties collect protest votes, and try to hang on until one of the major parties slips, or until there is a minority government. For in the parliamentary system, forming the executive is also first-past-the-post, and it can happen that a government holds less than half the legislative votes. Canada is in this situation right now. It means that the government has to negotiate a coalition for each bill it wants to pass. Minority governments typically don't last that long; each major party tries to use them as campaigns, hoping to look good enough to call or force a new election quickly, and get a majority, so that they can rule without effective opposition for up to five years.

Minor parties live for these episodes of minority government. Knowing that their moment of influence may be brief, they fight like heck to tip as much legislation as they can towards their platform, so that they can maintain an aura of relevance through the lean years until the next minority government. But they can't afford to push too hard, because if they don't co-operate with the governing party, the government will fall and in the ensuing election the electorate will probably be annoyed enough to return a majority government, sending the small parties back into irrelevance.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Are stereotype's "bad"? in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #13
I have that same edition of Writing and Difference that TM posted. Totally baffled. I could recognize grammatically that it had been translated into English, but it wasn't all that far from "Colorless green ideas sleep furiously." I sat down and started going through it very slowly, paraphrasing as I went, just trying to extract something coherent out of it, and worry later whether that was what Derridas meant. After a few pages of very hard work, what I had gotten seemed awfully banal, so I gave up. I keep it on my shelf with the fantasy of going through it someday as a retirement project. In the meantime it is good to frighten visitors nosy enough to discover it down there on the lower shelf.

Apart from being inclined on principle to endorse Alan Sokal, just because he' s a physicist, I have no particular brief for or against po-mo. I do think that it's a shame that this radical and violently obscure movement seems to have stolen, at least for many people, what are really just basic ideas about criticism and interpretation. Asking whether Marx might have been an unconscious and accidental fascist is not necessarily a post-modernist question.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
RW is Alive! in Richard White Games
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #9
I wouldn't really know, being a mere Imponderable Archon, but I suspect that the secret order of White is quietly registering Richard White Games, in order to support their leader. Kind of the same way that L. Ron Hubbard stays on bookstore shelves.

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Are stereotype's "bad"? in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #6
I apologize if I have been offensive, but whether the real meaning of Marxism is what Marx intended is a serious issue. I don't know enough about it to advance the argument seriously myself, but a lot of people have argued, in effect, that Lenin gave Marx a crypto-fascist reading, and made it stick for seventy years. I'm the wrong target, since this simply isn't my field, and I will neither advance nor accept arguments with any conviction either way; but if you want to defend Marx from more serious critics, you may want to come up with a more nuanced rebuttal to the suggestion.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Just In Time For the Elections: Political Compass! in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #5
Economic -2.88, social -3.64.

Among normal people this makes me some kind of pinko-wacko. Among academics, and apparently also on Spiderweb, this makes me Attilla the Hun. So I get to be everything; ha!

[ Friday, June 24, 2005 11:38: Message edited by: Student of Trinity ]

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Are stereotype's "bad"? in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #4
Ah, but every author dies once the last word is written, so George Lucas's intentions don't matter a damn. His oeuvre may have a perfectly good Marxist interpretation, no matter what he himself thought it might mean.

By the same token, I bet even Capital could be given a consistent crypto-fascist reading. Now that would be a martyrdom.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Oh My! A New Topic! in Richard White Games
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #53
Look, I may be a mere Imponderable Archon, but I am not just a universal flunky. I will perform no surgeries (tentacular or otherwise). I will bake no cakes (tentacular or otherwise). All I will do is take in the laundry. In return, I expect to be kept reasonably up to date on what we are supposed to be doing in this secret order. Or at least on what I am supposed to think we are supposed to be doing.

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Is it just me, or... in Geneforge Series
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #3
Hmm, I guess there's a downside to the separate islands. I like the way they act as separate chapters in your story, and how you feel like you've entered a whole new ballgame with each one you land at. But you do lose the anticipation of seeing the whole thing at once. It was so cool in Geneforge I to stare hard at all the funny topographic features in the unexplored lands ahead, and try to figure out what might be there. Then eventually, you could get there, and finally see for yourself.

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Old physics question in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #12
A dire sagot pullet is a boneless chicken, or pulley. That tures everything together, possibly allowing this thread to halt.

Never check bourbon.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #48
Glad to see people having fun with this.

How about another? Do people know the unexpected hanging? It's a bit older, so people who have heard it before could maybe hold off for a while, while others have their say.

Prisoner is sentenced to death in a state where judges have arbitrary power. Judge's sentence is as follows: "You will be executed at dawn on one of the seven days of next week, but you will not know which day until noon on the day before."

Prisoner sits in cell a couple of days before the fatal week begins, and reflects on the sentence. He notes that if he is so lucky as to survive through the first six dawns, he will then know at dawn on day 6 that day 7 will be his doom. But this would be contrary to the sentence, since he would know before noon. So the prisoner concludes that he cannot actually be executed on day 7.

Prisoner then concludes that day 6 is out as well, for with day 7 eliminated, the same reasoning as before would now apply to day 6. And so on: with each last day eliminated by the perverse wording of the sentence, all the days are eliminated in order. Prisoner concludes that he cannot be executed at all, because the judge's perverse sentence is actually self-contradictory. Yahoo!

At noon on day 3, the prisoner is informed that he will be executed at dawn on day 4. And so he is. The seemingly self-contradictory sentence was carried out flawlessly.

What was wrong with the prisoner's analysis?

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #13
As far as I understand the problem myself, Jumpin' Salmon is exactly right. .

The paradox here is that the analysis given by Drakefyre implies that you should always switch; and yet this analysis does not use any information about the amount of the first check. So it seems to imply that you should switch even if you hadn't seen the amount, which would be tantamount to just taking the other envelope in the first place. But everyone agrees that the initial choice is just random, and there is no way to give yourself any advantage in it.

The resolution of the paradox that I know starts from JS's scheme to base your choice on your knowledge of the probable range of prizes. If you knew about the probably range of prizes, finding the $50K would change the probability of the other check being greater or less, away from being 50/50, to being something else.

So the subtle point is that, even if you don't know the probable range of prizes, finding the $50K changes the probability that you must assume away from 50/50, to something unknown. So if you don't know enough about the game show, logic does not dictate that the smartest move is always to switch. Logic says that in this case, you're on your own: go with your gut.

In effect, this paradox is a vindication of Donald Rumsfeld's distinction between known and unknown unknowns.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Two envelopes paradox in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #0
I am bored with electioneering, so.

The game show host has two enevelopes. One contains a check for an unknown amount of money. The other contains a check for twice that amount, whatever it is. You, the player, choose one of the two, and open it to discover a check for $50,000.

The host then asks whether you would like to keep that check, or exchange it for the check in the other envelope.

Should you switch?

(The paradox comes not so much in deciding what to do, as in justifying your choice.)

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Old physics question in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #3
How are these words pronounced?

Margot Asquith famously corrected Jean Harlow by telling her that "the 't' in Margot is silent, as in Harlow."

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
It is that time of the month again in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #131
Eventually there will be another UBB fault, and Alorael will become an Apprentice. Sic transit gloria posti.

Yesterday for a while I thought Alorael had been given a really clever custom title: for some reason IE was showing his title as '<i>Blademaster</i>' instead of Blademaster. But it went away.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
SPOILERS- item recipes in Geneforge Series
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #10
The proposed recipe wasn't easy to make, and you wouldn't have been able to make more than a couple of them. But it didn't work.

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
The Official Electioneering Topic in General
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #67
Don't laugh. Joseph Stalin started out as moderator of the rollicking 'Marx&Sparx' forum in the old Bolsheboards, and quickly built it into an unassailable power base from which to exert total personal control over a nuclear superpower for twenty years. This is serious business, here.

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It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Oh My! A New Topic! in Richard White Games
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #43
Wait, are we forming a religious cult, or a secret order to rule the world? Or is one the front for the other, and if so which is which?

I'm embarrassed that I have to ask. Apparently there are so many dozens of degrees of initiation that even Imponderable Archon is rather low on the totem pole.

They don't tell us Archons nothin' down here. Nothin'. We're Imponderable because we're totally in the dark, that's what it is.

Hmmph.

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Oh My! A New Topic! in Richard White Games
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #40
Hey, it's Amsterdam.

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Oh My! A New Topic! in Richard White Games
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #38
And if they disappoint you, I'm sure that laundromat will be able to get them unclogged. Given their location, and my own experience with them, I set no bounds to what they can do in the way of cleaning.

I realize from a response by AM in General that I have not made clear just how amazing these guys were. I didn't just spill some sherry on my clothes. I packed a bottle of very dark wine in a duffel bag -- a big soft canvas thing -- wrapped up in my clothes, and then checked it on a transatlantic flight. (I'm afraid my soup experience was not an isolated incident.)

My whole wardrobe emerged dark red (though smelling very nicely of raisins -- I really recommend the Lustau oloroso), and the duffel bag itself was badly stained. But those Dutch laundry guys got it all cleaner than new, in about two hours.

[ Wednesday, June 22, 2005 14:54: Message edited by: Student of Trinity ]

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
SPOILERS- item recipes in Geneforge Series
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #8
Did we ever figure out how to make Charms of Mental Focus? The recipe given in the old thread here never worked for anyone, as far as I know.

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
Purification Plant Golems in Geneforge Series
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #7
No Magic Shaping, and no Battle Magic? I don't suppose you're good enough with a sword to be able to do it with the Oozing Blade?

Sounds like golems are just going to be bad news, for you. There are lots of ways to beat them, but you seem to have avoided them all. Good luck!

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We're not doing cool. We're doing pretty.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00

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