Two envelopes paradox

Error message

Deprecated function: implode(): Passing glue string after array is deprecated. Swap the parameters in drupal_get_feeds() (line 394 of /var/www/pied-piper.ermarian.net/includes/common.inc).

Pages

AuthorTopic: Two envelopes paradox
Off With Their Heads
Member # 4045
Profile Homepage #50
No.

I think this is kind of like the reason that your chance of flipping a coin and getting heads is always 50%, even if you've just flipped the coin and gotten heads 4 times in a row, despite the fact that before you did it, your chance of getting heads 5 times in a row is much smaller than 50%.

[ Friday, June 24, 2005 08:21: Message edited by: Manhood Typing Kelandon ]

--------------------
Arancaytar: Every time you ask people to compare TM and Kel, you endanger the poor, fluffy kittens.

Kelandon's Pink and Pretty Page!!: the authorized location for all things by me
The Archive of all released BoE scenarios ever
Posts: 7968 | Registered: Saturday, February 28 2004 08:00
Mongolian Barbeque
Member # 1528
Profile #51
The fallacy in the prisoner's logic is that he already assumed that the execution hadn't taken place on the first six days of the week, even though the week hadn't even started.

The judge probably chose not to do the execution on the last day of the week for that very reason. Saturday (day 7) is the only day on which the exeuction couldn't take place, because then the prisoner would indeed know for a fact the day before, because all the other options would have been eliminated. But everything else was fair game.

This reminds me of a conversation I had with a classmate in high school. We were talking about the Rapture of the Church (from the book of Revelation), and how the event's exact day is known to none but God the Father. She had heard that somebody or other predicted that such-and-such a date in such-and-such a year was going to be the day of the Rapture. In her girlish glee, she immediately said "Ah, so then it's NOT going to happen that day, since nobody knows when it'll happen!"

I had to calmly tell her that there is an all-important difference between [b]knowing[/b] and [b]guessing correctly[/b]. I had to give her an example:

Say each of the 6 billion people in the world guess that the Rapture would occur on a day unique to them, with no overlaps in guesses. In other words, each person guesses a different day, a day guessed by nobody else. Jane Baker of Texas guesses January 1st, 2006, while Xian Chu of Shanghai guesses January 1st, 2007, and so on, with one person setting their estimate on a single day and specific year. Presto—according to my classmate's logic, you've already postponed the Rapture for about 6 billion days, and then you could go on to postpone it indefinitely. :eek:

But since it's said that it will happen, merely guessing correctly won't prevent it. I finally got her to understand this, and she agreed that I was correct, then five minutes later I overheard her having the same conversation with someone else and she'd gone back to her original argument. <sigh>

[ Friday, June 24, 2005 10:56: Message edited by: Icshi ]

--------------------
The A.E. van Vogt Information Site
My Tribute to the Greatest Writer of the Science Fiction Golden Age
Posts: 907 | Registered: Monday, July 15 2002 07:00
Nuke and Pave
Member # 24
Profile Homepage #52
I am still trying to figure out the answer.

Meanwhile, I'll just give the random interpretation of problem answer, saing that "noon" means 12pm and "dawn" means sunrise, so perhaps due to geographic location of prison and time of the year, sunrise on day 6 would happen at 12pm. :)

--------------------
Be careful with a word, as you would with a sword,
For it too has the power to kill.
However well placed word, unlike a well placed sword,
Can also have the power to heal.
Posts: 2649 | Registered: Wednesday, October 3 2001 07:00
Master
Member # 4614
Profile Homepage #53
1/3 = 0.333...
2/3 = 0.666...

1/3 + 2/3 = 0.999... = 1.

That's easy enough, eh? :P

Oh, and if 5 days had passed, he knows he will be executed on the seventh day and he knows he will be informed of his execution at noon. Don't know if that helped any, however. :/

--------------------
-ben4808

For those who love to spam:
CSM Forums
RIFQ
Posts: 3360 | Registered: Friday, June 25 2004 07:00
Infiltrator
Member # 3040
Profile #54
Well the "unexpected" part really refers to the fact that the prisoner can't PROVE when his execution will occur. I think Icshi was onto this: the prisoner tries to deduce when he will be killed and arrives at a contradiction. He can guess all he wants, but he can't really infer anything from the contradiction other than that he really has no idea what's going on. If the prisoner, instead of deducing that he couldn't be killed, guessed he'd be executed on day 4, would the sentence have been correctly carried out?

I think we had a discussion a while ago of Newcomb's Paradox, but it might have been lost in one of the purges. I'll leave it to SoT to explain since he's having so much fun with all this stuff.

[ Friday, June 24, 2005 14:26: Message edited by: wz. arsenic... ]

--------------------
5.0.1.0.0.0.0.1.0...
Posts: 508 | Registered: Thursday, May 29 2003 07:00
...b10010b...
Member # 869
Profile Homepage #55
The seeming contradiction made the prisoner hold out hope that he wouldn't be hanged at all. As soon as he starts doing that, of course, he can be hanged on any day of the week, even the last day, without contradiction, because if he doesn't know that he will be hanged, he certainly doesn't know when he will be hanged.

[ Friday, June 24, 2005 14:43: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

--------------------
My BoE Page
Bandwagons are fun!
Roots
Hunted!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Infiltrator
Member # 878
Profile #56
How about this one:

You meet an alien who informs you that his race has a brain scanning device, which when used, afterwards a computer can analyze the scan to determine, with over 99% accuracy how that person will react to any given situation. He uses it on you, then has two boxes brought out. He tells you that one of them contains $10,000 and the other one contains either $100,000 or nothing. You can choose to either take just the box that might have a hundred thousand, or both boxes. But if the brain scanner and computer predicted that you would take both boxes, it will be empty, whereas if it predicts you will take only the uncertain box, it will contain the money. What should you do?

--------------------
Warning: Posts may contain misspellinks and typo.s
Posts: 409 | Registered: Sunday, March 31 2002 08:00
E Equals MC What!!!!
Member # 5491
Profile Homepage #57
quote:
Originally written by Student of Trinity:

Prisoner is sentenced to death in a state where judges have arbitrary power. Judge's sentence is as follows: "You will be executed at dawn on one of the seven days of next week, but you will not know which day until noon on the day before."

Prisoner sits in cell a couple of days before the fatal week begins, and reflects on the sentence. He notes that if he is so lucky as to survive through the first six dawns, he will then know at dawn on day 6 that day 7 will be his doom. But this would be contrary to the sentence, since he would know before noon. So the prisoner concludes that he cannot actually be executed on day 7.

Prisoner then concludes that day 6 is out as well, for with day 7 eliminated, the same reasoning as before would now apply to day 6. And so on: with each last day eliminated by the perverse wording of the sentence, all the days are eliminated in order. Prisoner concludes that he cannot be executed at all, because the judge's perverse sentence is actually self-contradictory. Yahoo!

At noon on day 3, the prisoner is informed that he will be executed at dawn on day 4. And so he is. The seemingly self-contradictory sentence was carried out flawlessly.

What was wrong with the prisoner's analysis?

His analysis (rightly or wrongly) led him to conclude that he couldn't be hanged at all, so he was obviously taken by suprise when they told him they were going to do it anyway. :)

EDIT: Beat. In reference to the one posted just above me, I just take the $100,000.

Another fun little paradox: Their are three erorrs in this sentence. Admittedly, just an extrapolation of "I am lying", but still.

[ Friday, June 24, 2005 19:50: Message edited by: Ash Lael ]

--------------------
Sex is easier than love.
Posts: 1861 | Registered: Friday, February 11 2005 08:00
Infiltrator
Member # 878
Profile #58
quote:
Originally written by Ash Lael:

[QUOTE]
Another fun little paradox: Their are three erorrs in this sentence. Admittedly, just an extrapolation of "I am lying", but still.

Or rather how about:
1. Statement number 2 is true.
2. Statement number 1 is false.

--------------------
Warning: Posts may contain misspellinks and typo.s
Posts: 409 | Registered: Sunday, March 31 2002 08:00
Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
Profile #59
For the two boxes brain scanner problem, I would chug a six-pack, then choose, in the hopes of throwing off the machine.

Oh, about the hanging: Ash Lael and Thuryl have it right. There was nothing wrong with the prisoner's reasoning day-by-day, as it were, but globally his argument pulled the rug out from under itself, because his conclusion contradicted a crucial premise. The interesting and subtle thing about the paradox is that the premise which is contradicted is not the assumption that the sentence is valid, but only that the prisoner knows that the sentence is valid. What's weird about it all is that the sentence only turns out to be valid because of the impossibility of the prisoner knowing the sentence to be valid.

What is Newcomb's Paradox?

[ Saturday, June 25, 2005 05:09: Message edited by: Student of Trinity ]

--------------------
It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem.
Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00
...b10010b...
Member # 869
Profile Homepage #60
Newcomb's Paradox is a stronger version of the one in Walter's post above, in which the predictor is always right. (The weak version as Walter posted it isn't very interesting, because once you assume the predictor is capable of error there's no longer a contradiction between its ability to predict and your ability to make a choice, and taking one box is the obvious solution.) The situation as described is impossible, which is what makes it a paradox; the trick is to figure out which part of the situation you want to declare impossible. This depends on your opinions about causality and determinism, and also on what degree of logical chicanery you're willing to have any truck with.

--------------------
My BoE Page
Bandwagons are fun!
Roots
Hunted!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Post Navel Trauma ^_^
Member # 67
Profile Homepage #61
Another one:

"The smallest natural number which cannot be defined using less than fourteen words."

But that sentence is only thirteen words, so the number it defines can actually be defined in less than fourteen words after all.

--------------------
Barcoorah: I even did it to a big dorset ram.

desperance.net - Don't follow this link
Posts: 1798 | Registered: Thursday, October 4 2001 07:00
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #62
Hmmm. Been gone 24 hours and all gehenna breaks loose around here.

1 - This here is a hanging judge. You WILL be hung. Guy was drunk when he gave the sentence and the prisoner was grasping at straws.

2 - Take both. He used the scanner prior to your knowledge of the boxes and the money. Sucker.

3 - Two spelling mistakes, and the third mistake is using the word three instead of two.

*this message has not been endorsed by me*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Law Bringer
Member # 335
Profile Homepage #63
The paradox, of course, is that if the word "three" is an error and should be "two," the sentence has three errors and the sentence should say three.

The brain scanner can predict what will be in the boxes, not what I will do with them? That's one weird scanner.

—Alorael, who would take both boxes. These aren't Schrödinger's boxes. Since the amount of money has already been placed by the time one makes the choice, taking both boxes can only result in getting more money. The amount of money in the box can't retroactively change based on a choice, can it? Besides, the scanner is almost 100% accurate, but it isn't quite 100% accurate. So maybe it was wrong and the alien can be conned out of $110,000.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Master
Member # 4614
Profile Homepage #64
99% accuracy is good enough for me. Who do you know that has been juked out of something they had a 99% chance of winning?

--------------------
-ben4808

For those who love to spam:
CSM Forums
RIFQ
Posts: 3360 | Registered: Friday, June 25 2004 07:00
...b10010b...
Member # 869
Profile Homepage #65
(Note: my analysis assumes the strong version of the paradox, where the prediction is 100% accurate.)

Except that how many boxes you choose to take doesn't affect your chance of winning, unless you believe that your decision now can influence what's already been put in the boxes in the past. So if you don't believe in reverse causality (and you don't believe that the aliens are cheating by changing the contents of the boxes after you choose), you should pick both boxes.

(An alternative resolution is to accept determinism, in which case the question of which box you should choose is moot because you don't really get to choose. This acceptance has more force if you can convincingly argue that it's impossible to predict events with 100% accuracy in a non-deterministic universe.)

[ Saturday, June 25, 2005 15:25: Message edited by: Thuryl ]

--------------------
My BoE Page
Bandwagons are fun!
Roots
Hunted!
Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00
Infiltrator
Member # 878
Profile #66
The confusing bit is, is that based on the almost certainly correct prediction, the money is already either in the box or not in it, and taking both boxes won't change that so there is no reason to decide not to take them. However if you are smart and decided that is the correct strategy you probably just cost yourself $90 by being that smart and logical.

--------------------
Warning: Posts may contain misspellinks and typo.s
Posts: 409 | Registered: Sunday, March 31 2002 08:00
E Equals MC What!!!!
Member # 5491
Profile Homepage #67
quote:
Originally written by Walter:

The confusing bit is, is that based on the almost certainly correct prediction, the money is already either in the box or not in it, and taking both boxes won't change that so there is no reason to decide not to take them. However if you are smart and decided that is the correct strategy you probably just cost yourself $90 by being that smart and logical.
The trick is not to realise this until after they've done the brain-reading thing.

--------------------
Sex is easier than love.
Posts: 1861 | Registered: Friday, February 11 2005 08:00
Infiltrator
Member # 878
Profile #68
Maybe what makes that contradictory is that the problem postulates that its already predetermined by the makeup of your brain what you'll decide on, but to reason about it you have to include in your thoughts whats probably in the box, so you are partly basing your decision on itself.

[ Saturday, June 25, 2005 21:25: Message edited by: Walter ]

--------------------
Warning: Posts may contain misspellinks and typo.s
Posts: 409 | Registered: Sunday, March 31 2002 08:00
? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
Profile #69
On second thought, which is the nice thing about doing this rather than getting actually scanned by aliens, I would take just the unknown box for the sure 100,000. But.

Here I sit with some friendly English speaking aliens that have spent all this time programming a machine to predict human behavior, they have thousands of US dollars, they have captured me alive, and I am calmly talking with them?

Drug induced hysteria.

*this message sponsored by lucy, skye, and diamond*
Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00
Law Bringer
Member # 2984
Profile Homepage #70
You risk losing half with a 50% chance. You risk winning the whole amount with a 50% chance.

x*50% - .5 x * 50%.

On the whole, it's worth it.

--------------------
The Encyclopaedia Ermariana <-- Now a Wiki!
"Polaris leers down from the black vault, winking hideously like an insane watching eye which strives to convey some strange message, yet recalls nothing save that it once had a message to convey." --- HP Lovecraft.
"I single Aran out due to his nasty temperament, and his superior intellect." --- SupaNik
Posts: 8752 | Registered: Wednesday, May 14 2003 07:00
Infiltrator
Member # 878
Profile #71
Well assume the machine is useable for any intelligent species, they got the money selling thier advanced technology, they showed up on earth a while ago, and they are trying to test thier machine to improve it (do the test many times and see if its wrong ever, and when it is analyze the scan in detail to figure out why).

As for the prisoner execution problem, think of it this way. If the prisoner is ever convinced a certain day will be the day, he is thus convinced the sentence is not going to be correctly carried out. And it is impossible to logically conclude anything about a situation if you don't have any information about it you can assume is true. Thus you are back to how he doesn't know it, he just guessed correctly. And if you interpret the sentence to include that, then the sentence was simply impossible in the first place as the prisoner could always come to an unfounded conclusion that it would be any given day.

--------------------
Warning: Posts may contain misspellinks and typo.s
Posts: 409 | Registered: Sunday, March 31 2002 08:00

Pages