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One Planet Down, Eight To Go in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #25
Well, they will only be incorrect in a technical sense. They do not list anything egregiously wrong, I mean, after all Pluto is still there. It has just finally been officially acknowledged as being a dwarf planet rather than a "differently-sized" one.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Story LIne in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #24
This has nothing to do with letting your enemies live. To strive to become as powerful and lethal as powerful is also to make the game as easy as possible at each necessary point. Choosing not to use the Geneforge does not in any prevent you from killing everything either in these games, and I mean everything.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Beta Call in Blades of Avernum
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #2
I doubt he wants to conduct a beta test to find major bugs or errors. He just wants people to test it and give him feedback on his items. To us, that might seem a bit quirky, but I think this is the first thing he is doing with scripting so we might as well give him advice (especially with regards to balance).

How might I get the scenario to test? In case you need it my E-mail address is net4less[AT]sbcglobal.net.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
what is it? in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #16
A Renaissance fair is nothing compared to a good old spam fest.

I am reminded of the recent Comedy Central Roast of William Shatner. "If Scotty tried to beam you up now, you'd break the **** transporter!" - Jeffrey Ross

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
One Planet Down, Eight To Go in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #13
Pluto will still be considered a classic planet, so there is no real loss there. This is only a nit-picky little distinction that the IAU is making, and though it is a dwarf, as in diminutive, planet, it is only a "dwarf planet" in name and title for us normal folk.

Also, one should feel lucky that he lived in a time where Pluto was closer to the Earth than Neptune. Your children will have to wait 200+ years for that to happen again.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
What have you been reading lately? in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #71
Cell by Stephen King

I hear that Eli Roth will direct a movie based on this book after he is done with Hostel 2. I certainly hope to be able to see the fantastic world that Stephen King creates in this book brought to the big screen.

Has anyone else read this one?

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Ideas For Avernum V in Avernum 4
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #2
He is just using the 17th Century English Punctuation System (very poorly).

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
A small rebellion in Blades of Avernum
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #5
Jaen is greater than Stalker merely because he is able to sneak his bulky, warrior self all the way down to his opponents' secret docks without having any trouble with the virtually invincible town defenses.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Idea for realsing creations in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #48
That is the connection between releasing creations and essence. If essence were, in the context of the Geneforge universe, being constantly used to maintain the very physical form of the creation, then releasing it would be impossible without permanently reducing your essence cap. It just doesn't make sense; that is, unless you shape something out of your own essence and then fortify it with a shaping vat while reabsorbing what it originally drained from you.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
New Computer! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #5
My desktop computer is about 2.5 years old, but its AMD64 processor is still fast enough to tackle anything I have thrown at it so far.

I upgraded the motherboard because the USB ports were broken (now, I think I could have saved the money and soldered some wires to simply new ports), and half a year ago I upgraded the RAM to 512MB.

My computer has still been running wonderfully, and I will not be replacing it for at least another 6 months.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Idea for realsing creations in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #43
Serviles and ornks are generally made to be able to breed. The other creations have it all buried in their DNA somewhere, I imagine.

To me, this whole topic deals with a fundamental question about how creations and their shapers are related: why do our creations tie up our maximum essence reserves for as long as they are alive?

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Brief Geneforge 4 Update in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #34
It should totally have, in addition to the traditional story paths, a new one: one where you choose to be a humble artisan or farmer while the rebellion occurs.

You would have to fulfill monthly orders of Ornks, fill up sacks of grain, make living tools, etc.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
current_out_section() in Blades of Avernum Editor
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #7
Wow, that is incredibly counterintuitive.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #92
10^-n approaches 0 as n -> infinity, so it all makes sense. The more boggling variation is to ask what 0.8888... + 0.1111... equals.

EDIT: By the way, relief on seeing my boy/girl argument understood at last. I had all but left it to the vultures already. The ratio for the tie seems a little off to me, but the conclusion is nonetheless the same.

[ Sunday, August 20, 2006 19:49: Message edited by: Garrison ]

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
current_out_section() in Blades of Avernum Editor
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #3
No, I think it would be 21 and 22. In a world of w width, the outdoor section (x,y) is represented by the number (x * w + y). At least that is how I remember it.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #87
I love this one. I find it so commonly known sometimes, though, that it is no longer a puzzle when you are with a group of people.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #82
I remember discussing this in AP Psychology. However, my teacher was a bit flaky on the subject and no one truly understood the situation. If I remember correctly, it is aptly called a dilemma because it all depends on the reasoning of the other person.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #80
Did ya get my PM?

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
====
Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Idea for realsing creations in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #31
Perhaps some areas should have wandering rogues that come from mating, rather than always from a spawner. It would be like extermination of rabbits... that breathe fire.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
School in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #6
August 23rd. Hey, Bain, do you live near Chicago?

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #78
As a note, the series math for this problem could be done by anyone who understands induction.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
====
Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #76
To be continued...

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
nature lore: what is your level? in Blades of Avernum
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #14
In that case, 5.

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
====
Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #74
I have a pretty good feeling about this current post. It should make everything clear.

quote:
Originally written by This Space For Rent:

If you are talking only about majority, than we're not disagreeing. I already said that boys are in the majority more often despite being no more prevalent in the overall population. There is a separate but related discussion of gender ratios.
This might be the root of this argument. I am completely talking in context of the problem as originally stated by Student of Trinity, wherein the probability of majority is the issue at hand.

[quote]I can't really decipher your appeal to probability, but I think it's a non-issue.[/quote]I was using enumeration to prove the trend toward the majority of boys. It is merely a device to aid my argument. If you think, however, that it is either flawed or unclear please tell me. I wouldn't argue with you on any criticism; I just want to make sure I was being clear.

What I do think is an issue is another statement:

quote:
quote:
I did the series math and determined that a single family does have an average 1:1 ratio between girls and boys. But an average has no meaning without the infinite number of trials from which to derive it.
The average ratio is the probability. The probability is the ratio that you will get from an infinite sample size. The real ratio from any finite sample size may deviate from the probability, but it should deviate in a bell curve with even tails above and below the expected outcome.
I had a feeling you see that small liberty I took in wording. I only put it in there as a red herring style argument to the other red herring you threw in earlier about tossing coins. I swear, if you make an accurate simulation of this, you will see what I mean. An infinite number of families is necessary if you are talking about majority.

[quote]—Alorael, who thinks this argument has gone nowhere and requires either an arbitrary end or a third party to make it make senes.[/quote]I am pretty sure we are both right, so to finalize:

1. In terms of ratios, would you agree that the boy to girl ratio tends to 1:1?

2. In terms of majority, would you agree that infinite families are necessary?

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
====
Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Agent
Member # 2820
Profile #72
quote:
Originally written by Tursing Slef:

—Alorael, who would like to know how you set up your simulated families/coin tosses.
Because you asked, I will say that my final function takes two numbers, one for the number of families in each population, and one for how many populations to generate. It does not take the total between populations because, as I stated in my previous post, that would be equivalent to making a single population with more families. You will argue that the actual number of boys and girls is more important, but look at the original question:
quote:

Nevertheless (the theory argues) there end up being more girls born than boys, because many families want to have at least one boy, so they keep having children until they get one, resulting in disproportionately many families with several sisters and one baby brother.

The most important piece of information is how often a gender is in majority. E.g., if girls are proven to be in majority more often, then it does support the premise of original question. It does not matter by how much it exceeds the other side in each trial. If you do not believe me, then try doing the simulated coin tosses/whatever. They should still prove my theory.

By the way, I have tested whether the random number generator in my PE is balanced, and out of 1000000 trials, there were 499374 heads and 500626 tails. I would say that is good enough.

I could E-mail someone either the source code if he knows Scheme or the distribution if I can figure out how to compile it. But that is a last resort.

Regardless, here I present hopefully my last two (and unfortunately most involved) arguments.

Argument 1: Appeal to Probability

As per the original question, the goal is to determine which side will be in majority more often in a given population. I will define a population as a number of families. For each different example of a population, I will present the probability for 1) the boys to be in majority, 2) a tie, and 3) the girls to be in majority. The chance for a tie will be disregarded, and I will present this premise without stated proof.

If the chances for both the boys and the girls to be in majority are equal or sufficiently equal, then there is no skew. In any other case, there must exist a skew. My contention is that there will be a skew unless there are an infinite number of families in the population.

Pop(n) is a population of n families. M is for male/boy and F is for female/girl. The rightmost (last) character in each sequence will be M. Each sequence represents a family. After each product of families is a probability. The combinations are multiplied to represent permutations of the same combination. The probability for the girls is calculated by 1 – boys – ties.

Pop(1)
Boys: 1/2
M: 1/2

Tie: 1/4
FM: 1/4

Girls: 1/4

==========

Pop(2)
Boys: 1/2
M * M: 1/4
(FM * M) * 2: 1/4

Tie: 3/16
FM * FM: 1/16
(FFM * M) * 2: 2/16

Girls: 5/16

==========

Pop(3)
Boys: 1/2
M * M * M: 1/8
(FM * M * M) * 3: 3/16
(FFM * M * M) * 3: 3/32
(FM * FM * M) * 3: 3/32

Tie: 5/32
FM * FM * FM: 1/64
(FFM * FM * M) * 6: 3/32
(FFFM * M * M) * 3: 3/64

Girls: 11/32

==========

I infer from this trend that chances for the boys will remain 50%. The chances for a tie approach 0 as n -> infinity. Consequently, the chances for the girls will approach 50% as well.

Argument 2: Appeal to Something Else

quote:
Originally written by Tursing Slef:

Except it isn't right. The probability is always 1:1. It doesn't matter if you have one family or one million families. The difference is that the probability is a matter of simple statistics, so the smaller the sample size the greater the possible variation in actual ratio. That does not mean the probability changes.

Here's an analogy using coins. If you flip a coin once there is a 0% chance of getting the expected 1:1 ratio of heads or tails. You'll get only one or only the other. The more times you flip, the closer the observed ratio will be to 1:1. The probability is always 1:1.

Here's the question I tried to ask before: if each family acts independently of the others, and one family is skewed towards boys, how can an infinite number of families cause the skew to disappear? They should all share it.

The skew disappears because, by adding together the populations, you create a new population with more families. In that case, the majority is insignificant because the actual numbers are added up, reducing the skew. This is the conclusion of my theory. As you continue the trend, the skew becomes sufficiently small and you have a quasi-balance.

I did the series math and determined that a single family does have an average 1:1 ratio between girls and boys. But an average has no meaning without the infinite number of trials from which to derive it. The majority, as you poignantly pointed out, exists because of the restricted sample size family (like in the above cases in Argument 1). By increasing the sample size, the ratio is brought closer and closer to 1:1. Thus, the number of families is important as my theory set out to establish. Interestingly, though, you are completely right about the shared skew. For any population with a finite number of families, the skew will still mathematically exist.

[ Thursday, August 17, 2006 14:03: Message edited by: Garrison ]

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Thuryl: I mean, most of us don't go around consuming our own bodily fluids, no matter how delicious they are.
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Alorael: War and violence would end if we all had each other's babies!
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Drakefyre: Those are hideous mangos.
Posts: 1415 | Registered: Thursday, March 27 2003 08:00

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