A little thought experiment
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| Author | Topic: A little thought experiment |
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Post Navel Trauma ^_^
Member # 67
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 01:56
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I think this is called Newcomb's Paradox: A superintelligent alien comes to Earth claims that he can predict people's actions. To demonstrate this, you are chosen for the following: You are led into a room with two boxes (A and B). You must choose to either take box B only, or take both boxes. Box A is guaranteed to contain £1000. Box B will contain £1000000 if the alien predicts you will take it only, or nothing if you are predicted to take both boxes. You are not the first to do this - thousands of other people have done it already, and the alien has been right every time. What do you do? Argument for taking only box B: Everyone in the past who took B got £1000000, and everyone who took both boxes got only £1000. Why should you be any different? Argument for taking both boxes: When you go into the room, the money is already in the boxes, so nothing you choose from then on will affect the contents of box B. If box B is empty, you are better off taking both boxes, as you will get £1000 instead of nothing. If B does have the million, you would still be £1000 better off by picking both boxes. I would only take box B. Would you? -------------------- Grammar wenches beware: This is the house that the malt that the rat that the cat that the dog that the cow that the maiden that the man that the priest that the cock that the farmer kept waked married kissed milked tossed worried killed ate lay in. My Website desperance.net - Leave your sanity at the door Posts: 1798 | Registered: Thursday, October 4 2001 07:00 |
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Shaper
Member # 22
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 03:21
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I take only Box B. Since there is no reason to presume that the alien will ever get it wrong, what is the extra thousand going to get me that I could not get from a bank with a good rate of interest? Also, if this alien keeps on dishing out £1 million to thousands of people, inflation's gonna make that thousand seem even more meagre. -------------------- KazeArctica: "Imagine...wangs everywhere...and tentacles. Nothing but wangs and tentacles! And no pants!" Posts: 2862 | Registered: Tuesday, October 2 2001 07:00 |
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One Thousand Slimy Things
Member # 66
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 03:35
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Does the alien have tentacles? -------------------- Saundersw3: And bitter is better! Posts: 995 | Registered: Thursday, October 4 2001 07:00 |
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Shaper
Member # 22
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 03:43
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Do tentacles make a great deal of difference to your decision, Arctic? -------------------- KazeArctica: "Imagine...wangs everywhere...and tentacles. Nothing but wangs and tentacles! And no pants!" Posts: 2862 | Registered: Tuesday, October 2 2001 07:00 |
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One Thousand Slimy Things
Member # 66
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 04:44
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Of course. But I was also going to ask if it was a boy or a girl alien. ^^ -------------------- Saundersw3: And bitter is better! Posts: 995 | Registered: Thursday, October 4 2001 07:00 |
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DELETED Member # 21
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 04:54
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Any alien worth its salt has tentacles -------------------- KazeArctica: Oh yes. KazeArctica: Oh YES Posts: 93 | Registered: Sunday, September 30 2001 22:00 |
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Warrior
Member # 3694
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 05:54
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Box B. Not that any of you care. But so long as yer all gonna be rich, I might as well be too...  -------------------- And that was exactly the point of itself. Takes advantage of the easily offended. Posts: 137 | Registered: Monday, November 17 2003 08:00 |
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One Thousand Slimy Things
Member # 66
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 06:00
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This topic is already lost, but feel free to continue your futile struggle to keep on topic. -------------------- Saundersw3: And bitter is better! Posts: 995 | Registered: Thursday, October 4 2001 07:00 |
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...b10010b...
Member # 869
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 06:52
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The probability that these are time-travelling aliens who are cheating by altering the contents of Box B depending on your choice is at least within three orders of magnitude of the probability that they just happened to guess correctly every time. Box B it is, then. Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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Fire! Fire! Fire! Fire!
Member # 919
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 07:08
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B. -------------------- And though the musicians would die, the music would live on in the imaginations of all who heard it. -The Last Pendragon TEH CONSPIRACY IZ ALL Les forum de la chance. Incaseofemergency,breakglass. Posts: 3351 | Registered: Saturday, April 6 2002 08:00 |
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Guardian
Member # 3521
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 10:10
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Box B only, as a million pounds is nothing to scoff at. The argument for taking both boxes is faulty, as there is no way to know that this particular alien, being super-intelligent, and probably very technologically advanced, will not be able to alter the contents of a given box without an observer recognizing the fact. It seems madness to choose to take both boxes when precedent is so heavily in favor of those who chose Box B alone. -------------------- "Let a man find himself, in distinction from others, on top of two wheels with a chain- at least in a poor country like Russia- and his vanity begins to swell out like his tires. In America it takes an automobile to produce this effect."- Leon Trotsky Posts: 1798 | Registered: Sunday, October 5 2003 07:00 |
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BANNED
Member # 4
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 10:14
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Box B. More $$$ to redistribute among the masses. -------------------- We're all amazed but not amused By all the things that you said you'd do. You're much concerned but not involved by Decisions that are made by you But we are sick and tired of hearing your song, Telling us how you are going to change right from wrong, 'Cause if you really want to hear our views, You haven't done nothin'. Posts: 6936 | Registered: Tuesday, September 18 2001 07:00 |
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Apprentice
Member # 3872
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 10:27
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Ok. I found a long writen out version of this Newcomb's Paradox. It states that box A is open and B is closed. Now if you only take box B it has a million pounds in it, right? And if you take both BOXS then you get stuck with only 1000 pounds. I am right up to this point, right? Now It only makes a statement of taking both boxs and you get screwed. I would only take BOX B and take the money from Box A leaving the box behind. HA HA HA HA! I win!!! Posts: 2 | Registered: Thursday, January 8 2004 08:00 |
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Post Navel Trauma ^_^
Member # 67
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 12:02
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I think there is something I didn't make clear. Between you making your decision and opening the boxes, there is NO opportunity for the alien to fiddle with the boxes' contents. If you want, you can take a friend in who is allowed to look into the boxes before you choose and make sure of this. Since I'm feeling generous, I'll let the friend tell you what he thinks you should choose once he's looked. -------------------- Grammar wenches beware: This is the house that the malt that the rat that the cat that the dog that the cow that the maiden that the man that the priest that the cock that the farmer kept waked married kissed milked tossed worried killed ate lay in. My Website desperance.net - Leave your sanity at the door Posts: 1798 | Registered: Thursday, October 4 2001 07:00 |
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Bob's Big Date
Member # 3151
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 13:43
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I wouldn't take either. I'm overweight as is. -------------------- In a word, gay. --Bob the Impaler Posts: 2367 | Registered: Friday, June 27 2003 07:00 |
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Infiltrator
Member # 3441
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 18:14
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Ha! What is 1 million pounds to the chief of the omnipotent Smugglers' Alliance. I'd only take box A, just to be different. I'd also brutally murder the alien. After that, I'd eat a bowl of chicken noodle soup. I used to be schitzophrenic, but we're okay now. -------------------- -WildKarrdeSmuggler ----------------------------------- Visit the Smuggler's Alliance Posts: 536 | Registered: Sunday, September 7 2003 07:00 |
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BoE Posse
Member # 112
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written Saturday, January 17 2004 22:59
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I'm thinking that everyone before me took box B and that's why the alien has been right every time. I take both boxes. -------------------- Win a free copy of Blades of Avernum! The Don't Fix The Shark Competition Posts: 1423 | Registered: Sunday, October 7 2001 07:00 |
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Bob's Big Date
Member # 3151
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written Sunday, January 18 2004 00:07
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But why, really? Is £1,000,000 for sure really that much worse than £1,001,000 that you're not guaranteed to see more than £1,000 of? -------------------- In a word, gay. --Bob the Impaler Posts: 2367 | Registered: Friday, June 27 2003 07:00 |
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...b10010b...
Member # 869
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written Sunday, January 18 2004 00:39
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It's not for sure, though. The alien's prediction could be wrong this time. This, in fact, is what you're counting on if you take both boxes. Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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Law Bringer
Member # 335
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written Monday, January 19 2004 18:31
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I'd take box B on the assumption that the alien has access to some information that I don't have. Without even bothering to wrap my mind around how he can figure it out, I'd just assume that the statistics are in my favor if I take B only. And while 1000 pounds would be nice, a good chance for 1,000,000 is worth a little risk. —Alorael, who would also gain certain celebrity from being the one to beat the alien at his game, as it were. So either way, by picking box B alone he'd win. Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00 |
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Apprentice
Member # 3916
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written Thursday, January 22 2004 23:11
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Doesn't it come down to your faith in the alien's ability? If you doubt him not, take B (he knew you were going to do that, and thus you get the million Pounds). If there is doubt, take A. Doug Posts: 18 | Registered: Thursday, January 22 2004 08:00 |
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Apprentice
Member # 2773
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written Friday, January 23 2004 13:35
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Box A just to be akward. -------------------- If we assume that at the start of the first game, Micah has been ruling for 20 odd years, and we take into account that he was atleast 30 by the time he took the throne. If we add a year for the events of the first game, then 5 years untill the second, a year for that game and the seven years untill the begginning of the third, then take a year to account for the last one... Posts: 32 | Registered: Saturday, March 15 2003 08:00 |
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Triad Mage
Member # 7
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written Friday, January 23 2004 17:32
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quote: -------------------- "At times discretion should be thrown aside, and with the foolish we should play the fool." - Menander ==== Drakefyre's Demesne - Vahnatai Did Do It desperance.net - We're Everywhere The Arena - God Will Sort The Dead ==== You can take my Mac when you pry my cold, dead fingers off the mouse! Posts: 9436 | Registered: Wednesday, September 19 2001 07:00 |
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Law Bringer
Member # 335
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written Friday, January 23 2004 18:41
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Box A makes no sense. Taking both boxes still guarantees you the minimum of £1000. —Alorael, who is sure the alien will predict that you'll try to break the rules anyway. Burly men will come and dissuade you. Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00 |
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Agent
Member # 1359
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written Saturday, January 24 2004 17:41
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I would take Box B and deposit it in an insured bank account. Afterwards, I would return to collect Box A. The humans always win in the end. -------------------- ~ §øСüm©ÿªñ¡Ðë ~ Mission Ridge -- All Your Snow Are Belong to Us. Posts: 1277 | Registered: Monday, June 24 2002 07:00 |
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