A little thought experiment

Pages

Author	Topic: A little thought experiment
too kraut, don't read Shock Trooper Member # 3980	written Wednesday, February 18 2004 11:41 Profile Homepage #25 Where is the paradox? Even after reading http://hometown.aol.com/kiekeben/newcomb.html. I doubt whether I have to understand how the prediction works in order to take advantage of it. Consider the crude assumption that the prediction is right in x*100% (e.g. 90% for x=0.9) of all cases, i.e. ignore the difference between false positive and false negative predictions: If I take both boxes, the chance to get only 1,000 is x*100% and the chance to get 1,001,000 is (1-x)*100%. This expectation is worth x*1000 +(1-x)* 1,001,000= 1,001,000-x*(1,000,000). For x=0.9 this means 101,000. If I take only box B, I have x*100% chance to get 1,000,000 and (1-x)*100% chance to get nothing. This expectation is worth x*1,000,000, i.e. for x=0.9 : 900,000. The crossover between the two expectations occurs for x=1,001,000/2,000,000 = 0.5005. The possibility for a predictability with such a small accuracy (i.e. deviation from a random prediction) could have easily gone unnoticed over the ages of everyday life. On the other hand, the existence of my free will has not been "proven" to me - free will is just some folklore illusion many of us believe in. Ok, it has not proven inconsistent over ages of everyday life... P.S. I also want it to be known that I intend to take only box B - to make sure that my choice will be predicted correctly if the situation ever becomes reality. [ Wednesday, February 18, 2004 13:41: Message edited by: Your Fellow Procrastinator ] -------------------- Wisdom grows from trying to find structure in our experience - looking backwards in time - while living goes forward. Theories are expectations that help us live forward - like possible ways to put the mosaic together. If they are worth the effort to remember, they should predict something and in case the prediction does not work out with time they should autodestruct. And then there is something that we cannot test - something we have inherited in form of customs, attitudes, culture and the spirit of stories told and retold - that is like our individual SQUARE ONE. This runs deeper than we can know. Posts: 311 | Registered: Friday, February 13 2004 08:00
Chivlan Lifecrafter Member # 3608	written Wednesday, February 18 2004 11:43 Profile Homepage #26 h3y funny u just r3viv3d a d3ad t0pic c00l n0w di3 plz k -------------------- - The Great Mister Posts: 972 | Registered: Tuesday, October 28 2003 08:00
too kraut, don't read Shock Trooper Member # 3980	written Wednesday, February 18 2004 13:12 Profile Homepage #27 Sorry [ Wednesday, February 18, 2004 13:19: Message edited by: Your Fellow Procrastinator ] -------------------- Wisdom grows from trying to find structure in our experience - looking backwards in time - while living goes forward. Theories are expectations that help us live forward - like possible ways to put the mosaic together. If they are worth the effort to remember, they should predict something and in case the prediction does not work out with time they should autodestruct. And then there is something that we cannot test - something we have inherited in form of customs, attitudes, culture and the spirit of stories told and retold - that is like our individual SQUARE ONE. This runs deeper than we can know. Posts: 311 | Registered: Friday, February 13 2004 08:00
Morgan Shaper Member # 22	written Thursday, February 19 2004 04:16 Profile #28 Don't worry about it - nobody minds if you revive a topic if you have something thoughtful and intelligent to add. -------------------- KazeArctica: "Imagine...wangs everywhere...and tentacles. Nothing but wangs and tentacles! And no pants!" Posts: 2862 | Registered: Tuesday, October 2 2001 07:00
Thuryl ...b10010b... Member # 869	written Thursday, February 19 2004 14:58 Profile Homepage #29 The paradox is that by the time you decide on what to take the prediction has already been made, so your decision can't possibly affect what's in the boxes; therefore, since the boxes already have in them whatever's in them, you may as well take both. Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00

Pages