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Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 6388
Profile #12
But if I have to stick to my first choice every time, there isn't a second game, now is there?

Also, I'd dispute the idea that the 1000-door version and the 3-door version are equivalent - in fact, I'm certain it's wrong, but have no idea how - but that's neither here nor there.

[ Saturday, August 12, 2006 13:21: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 6388
Profile #10
quote:
Originally written by Micawber:

The two games aren't independent.
What prevents them from being independent, exactly? Even though at first blush it would seem they're related, they're completely independent.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Abominable Photo Thread Strikes Back in General
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Member # 6388
Profile #77
Yeah yeah yeah, and I could be posting with #165 if I felt like it. What's the point?
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
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Member # 6388
Profile #7
(Warning: this post has spoilers.)

But that doesn't make any difference. You're treating the first game (choose 1 door out of 3 or 1000) and the second game (choose 1 door out of 2) as the same.

When the host opens the third door, a new game begins, and there's a 1 in 2 probability there's a prize behind either door.

I honestly can't believe that the accepted consensus among statisticians here is what it is, because that consensus is manifestly wrong.

In the classical form of the problem (Monty Hall), there are two games. In the first, you select one door out of three, with each door having a 1 in 3 chance of containing a car and a 2 in 3 chance of containing a goat.

In the second game, there's a 1 in 2 chance either door has the car behind it.

The revealing of a goat door has no influence on either game - it's the segue between game #1 and game #2.

To say, as the consensus does, that there's a 2 in 3 chance of there being a goat behind the door you go into game #2 having selected by default is to pretend that somehow you're still playing game #1.

...

On a related note, I trust Erdos's judgement on this one. The consensus answer to this problem seems like an elaborate logical shell game without an actual grounding in reality; further, I trust explicitly one of the most brilliant mathematicians of the last century before someone whose claim to fame is the belief she is the smartest person alive.

[ Saturday, August 12, 2006 12:26: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
My creed in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #2
quote:
Originally written by GremlinJoe:

After wwhat seems to be centuries of abuse and pain A man like this still follows his father, God.

I forgive you all who would call me a liar. My curses are two fold. Twain is the man within and quadruple are his nemesis.

I never gave up, I never surrendered. I NEVER WILL. I broke, but I still work on in my pain and brokeness.

BENEATH CONTEMPT THEY SAID ONCE BEFORE. BENEATH CONTEMPT THEY'VE SAID AGAIN. YOU'RE WORDS ARE PAINFUL TO ME, YOU KNOW. Maybe I don't really care what you all believe about me. I am tempted to throw it all away because of this consiststant pattern misunderstanding I have seen throughout all my LONG LIFE!!! HOW OLD ARE ANY OF YOU ANYWAY?
KIDS, THATS ALL YOU ARE! JUST KIDS FRESH OUT OF COLLEGE NO DOUBT. MAYBE YOU THINK YOU HAVE IT ALL FIGURED OUT. I'VE SEEN AND LIVED WITH **** WORSE THAN YOU'RE WORST NIGHTMARES. I STOOD MY GROUND IN PLACE THAT WOULD MAKE MOST NORMAL MEN PUKE. I OPPOSED ENEMIES OF SUCH INTOLLERABLE CRUELTY THAT ANGELS THEMSELVES MUST FEEL MY PAIN TO SOME DEGREE. I PAID IN MIND, BODY, AND SPIRIT FOR WHAT WAS RIGHT. I STOOD FOR FREEDOM, TRUTH, AND JUSTICE. I DIED IN A HELLHOLE NONE OF YOU PEOPLE COULD EVER IMAGINE. I LOST WHO I AM! I LIVE IN CONSTANT PAIN WITH HORRIBLE DISFIGUREMENTS. I AM AN OBJECT OF HORROR TO MY FELLOW MAN. WHAT RIGT DO ANY OF YOU HAVE TO JUDGE ME!!! TO CONDEMN ME!!!!

but I have no regrets. so I guess it really doesn't matter what you all think of me. I really do forgive you. And I'd rather see all of you get better lives instead of any sort of revenge. My father, God taught me to be this way.

Your continuing craven efforts to find a niche in which you can claim to be a victim would be sickening were you not still beneath contempt.

As such, they are, along with everything else about you, merely irritating.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Abominable Photo Thread Strikes Back in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #58
TITS OR LEAVE

quote:
Originally written by Synergy:

Rats. I hate it when I die. I seem to recall also getting killed off in the Return of the Noobs story.

-S- is for Spontaneous regeneration.

There's an appropriate topic for that, Synergy, and this isn't it. This is, rather, the appropriate topic for you to hit on fundie chicks half your age.

[ Friday, August 11, 2006 15:08: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Abominable Photo Thread Strikes Back in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #48
quote:
Originally written by Drow:

Towel pic plz!

...

Ah well. It was worth a try. :P

And yet you claim that there's no cyber-seduction going on in the Runescape topic.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Abominable Photo Thread Strikes Back in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #36
Oh really?

IMAGE(http://memory-alpha.org/en/images/thumb/0/0f/Mirror_Spock.jpg/250px-Mirror_Spock.jpg)
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Abominable Photo Thread Strikes Back in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #34
Aran, you look better with glasses, I think - your eyes suggest a weird negative space on your smooth, featureless visage otherwise.

Unless you can get a unibrow or some serious bags under those eyes, glasses will have to do.

EDIT 2: And I'm not trying to imply some kind of Kraut voodoo here - I mean you literally look like you were born fully-formed yesterday and have only actually been aging for nigh on twenty-four hours, or are perhaps not a man but a wax statue - sculpted by a talented man who was interrupted before adding any kind of crease - given life by the mysterious intercession of some kind of Aryan loa.

What I'm getting at here is keep the glasses. And lay off the voodoo.

EDIT: Tyran, I just realized what it is with you! You take your pictures from an angle that would make Aran look pudgy, and you seem to pull in your head to boot (either habitually or when taking photos, I dunno). That's why 80% of your pictures suggest someone a good fifty, sixty pounds heavier than the other 20% - the sort of person who considers a double quarter pounder sans cheese health food, or who, when sitting around the house, sits around the house.

[ Wednesday, August 09, 2006 21:10: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Introducing Leopard in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #15
quote:
Originally written by Mc 'mini' Thralni:

The best one is Timemachine: an automatic utility that backs up your whole computer (that's true, your whole computer: system files, apps, everything). You then can restore your computer to a certain date when something goes wrong. That means that if your hard drive dies, you just buy a new hard drive, and you copy all the files, ready to start computing from the point you were yesterday.
Oh my God! A system backup utility! How ingenuous. Now if only they could come up with a sequel to Warcraft.

[ Wednesday, August 09, 2006 10:52: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Alec Kyras: An 19th Birthday Retrospective in General
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Member # 6388
Profile #30
quote:
Originally written by Kelandon:

quote:
Originally written by The Worst Man Ever:

It's still astoundingly impolite, but hey, your call.
Remember that the next time you address me as "Watts."

Oh, boo hoo. Won't anybody think about Kelandon's feelings? His great big sensitive feelings.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Alec Kyras: An 19th Birthday Retrospective in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #23
It's still astoundingly impolite, but hey, your call.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Alec Kyras: An 19th Birthday Retrospective in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #20
Hey, way to abuse information to which you enjoy a personal privilege.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Abominable Photo Thread Strikes Back in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #12
quote:
Originally written by Tyranicus:

I was playing around with the iSight camera on my MacBook and decided to make a new photo thread. It's been at almost a month since the last one. :P

IMAGE(http://www.shadowvale.net/me-2006-08-08.jpg)

Oh, God! It's mirror-universe Tyranicus! Run while you still can!

And because you people don't need another photo of me:

IMAGE(http://photos-438.facebook.com/ip004/v37/195/42/23704612/n23704612_30196438_6209.jpg)

[ Tuesday, August 08, 2006 10:38: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Alec Kyras: An 19th Birthday Retrospective in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #11
So möge der Name Desperancer in Spiderweb auf tausend Jahre durch euch in einer Weise bestätigt werden, dass niemals wieder ein Spiderwebich es wagt, einen Desperancichen auch nur scheel anzusehen.

[ Sunday, August 06, 2006 11:52: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Great SW Photo Captioning Contest in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #45
quote:
Originally written by Ephesos:

IMAGE(http://staticfree.info/graphics/squirrel%20fishing-2.jpg)
While he did at times worry about living the stereotype, Joe-Bob the Three-Legged Squirrel loved the circus too much to quit.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
The Great SW Photo Captioning Contest in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #27
quote:
Originally written by Thuryl:

IMAGE(http://thuryl.desperance.net/attention.jpg)
Welcome to the Hot Topic of tomorrow!

[ Wednesday, August 02, 2006 23:47: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Love in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #13
quote:
Originally written by This:

Save it for your scenarios, TM.
Up yours, whoever the hell you are.

I'm genuinely surprised to see TM posting something insightful on this.

My opinion is that love is what happens when two people like each other and manage not to repel each other before they get permanently attached. I don't think there's anything deeper than that.

[ Wednesday, August 02, 2006 22:52: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Just a little question in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #31
The idiom is 'has another think coming' 'Thing' is hypercorrection.

[ Wednesday, August 02, 2006 15:37: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Just a little question in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #14
TM hasn't actually done anything to merit banning recently.

And there isn't anything in the CoC forbidding being TM. Yet.

[ Wednesday, August 02, 2006 01:02: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Just a little question in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #12
As resident Defender of the Indefensible, I am duty-bound to inveigh in WKS's favor as follows:

The Administration took an unusually harsh and vindictive step in banning WKS. While it can be genuinely argued that his posting was an effort to destroy TM's topic, it is just as likely that it was a continuation of the proud tradition of filibustering, alive and well with SW oldbies (to which he admittedly aspired without justification, being an irredeemable newbie), wherein an excessive volume of text is poured into an offensive topic in the hope of provoking some kind of reaction, possibly moderatorial but more generally community-minded.

The allegations against him include that he deliberately attempted to break the boards (which I have fielded); that he attacked an artifact of the community; that he engaged in inappropriate behavior as to so attack; and that he used smut in so doing.

TM's name topic is no more deserving of reverence than TM himself. While it was a notable and enduring part of the community in spite of its blatant offensiveness and lack of actual purpose besides sating TM's vanity (once more, like TM himself), idolizing it and raising it above reproach is basically inappropriate. In my time I have assaulted topics which I did not enjoy with the full text of Kafka's Metamorphosis, the Communist Manifesto, and the Treaty of Westphalia. WKS remained within his rights to do so. His boldness in filibustering General's largest active topic and TM's golden baby cannot be denied.

Further, it has been alleged that the material with which he engaged in this historic action was lewd and inappropriate. To this I say: balderdash. The Kama Sutra is a religious document on the appropriate nature of sexual and romantic relationships, written in the clinical tone typical of ancient religious documents discussing sexual ritual, and is no more lewd than a frank discussion of the mechanics of menstruation. While certainly disruptive, it was by no means lewd, and punishing him for the selection of that document is ridiculous. If he had selected, say, some long Kinsey Report document released into the public domain, he would doubtless have been punished more leniently.

On each of the counts of which WKS stands accused, one is entirely debatable, one is entirely meaningless, and the two remaining are not without precedent separately (while comprising a wholly unique event in and of themselves) and entirely unworthy of the punishment assessed in any event.

Can I please stop defending someone who intentionally broke the board with the closest thing to porn his dull, Republican brains could tolerate in order to air-hump at TM now?

Please.

[ Wednesday, August 02, 2006 00:28: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Just a little question in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #3
quote:
Originally written by We are then to dream.:

He posted a large chunk of the Kama Sutra in TM's moniker thread, which caused errors in the thread and which does bad things to the boards in general. He was booked for two counts of lewd and licentious material and one count of obnoxiousness.

—Alorael, who does have to say that this is the only banning of a generally stable poster that has not resulted in an outcry. It's nice, actually.

I could throw a fit if you like. My heart really isn't in it because WKS is a reactionary, he was doing what he did to screw with TM, and what he posted was pretty bluntly inappropriate and unprecedented, but you know how I like throwing fits.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
Graphics Hoard Unleashed Upon Ye in Blades of Avernum
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #26
None of these are new, nor have I ever tried them in BoA, but here they are anyway.

IMAGE(http://alec.desperance.net/ABLIS%20SUPERPOWER.PNG)
Ablis, who is a redcoat for some reason.

IMAGE(http://alec.desperance.net/captainavernum.PNG)
Captain Avernum! Hopefully if you use him as a two-tiled monster it will appear as if he is flying. He is made from the King Micah and Vahnatai Lord graphics; he flies around with his jetpack, presumably dispensing justice.

IMAGE(http://alec.desperance.net/hallucination.gif)
The Hallucination. To wit:

Ogre (?) dying; mage on chair upside down; Nethergate woman with tiny ghouls; cryohydra

Vahnatai; dying skeleton; inverted carpet; Vahnatai Lord fire

Book icon; Nephil in rocket-chair; dying Demon Golem; inverted stag statue

Ceremonial knife; inverted stairway; Trog shaman (BoE); rat (Exile 2 originals)

Sheep, rotated in various directions, for dying animation.

Hebrew glyphs for outdoor graphics, with no particular significance.

IMAGE(http://alec.desperance.net/xaolena-pc.gif)

A Lena Xao PC graphic. For those of you not familiar, she's the half-space-alien child of the founding father of Aixo (which was once Aizo), rules the country with an iron and genocidal fist, and prefers women. This is a graphic for which there is a universal need.

Worth it for the adorable cape alone.

A poison trap that grows when you kill it:

IMAGE(http://alec.desperance.net/poisontrap-1.gif)
IMAGE(http://alec.desperance.net/poisontrap-2.gif)

And a fire trap that just goes off and poofs:

IMAGE(http://alec.desperance.net/flametrap.gif)

Originals, although not any good.

All of these were made in Paint. I've been picking up GIMP, but it's a slow road.

[ Tuesday, August 01, 2006 17:15: Message edited by: The Worst Man Ever ]
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
I'm a Runescape freak how about you? in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #59
Well of Souls is a lot of fun, but it's been far too long since I played it to get into it again.
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00
I'm a Runescape freak how about you? in General
Lifecrafter
Member # 6388
Profile #52
OH MY GOD SPIDERWEB ROMANCE
Posts: 794 | Registered: Tuesday, October 11 2005 07:00

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