1/10 Contest Prediction Poll

AuthorTopic: 1/10 Contest Prediction Poll
Shaper
Member # 7472
Profile Homepage #0
Alright, this poll is very simple. It consists of ten questions, and each question corresponds to a rank in the 1/10. Simply choose which scenario you think will take each place.

Note: You won't be able to view the results until May 6th, the contest deadline. This is to keep from accidentally swaying the remaining judges. Also, please keep your votes to yourself until the deadline has passed and the announcement has been made.

[ Monday, April 30, 2007 07:54: Message edited by: Nioca ]

Poll Information
This poll contains 10 question(s). 21 user(s) have voted.
Voting stopped at May 06, 2007 05:00 AM board time.

function launch_voter () { launch_window("http://www.ironycentral.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=poll;d=vote;pollid=XaaeRPNVmGVj"); return true; } // end launch_voter function launch_viewer () { launch_window("http://www.ironycentral.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=poll;d=view;pollid=XaaeRPNVmGVj"); return true; } // end launch_viewer function launch_window (url) { preview = window.open( url, "preview", "width=550,height=300,toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status,menubar=no,scrollbars,resizable,copyhistory=no" ); window.preview.focus(); return preview; } // end launch_window IMAGE(votenow.gif)     IMAGE(voteresults.gif)

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AmnesiaDileciaThe Empire's New GroveExpress Delivery
Twilight ValleyWitch HuntWhere the Rivers Meet
Posts: 2686 | Registered: Friday, September 8 2006 07:00
Law Bringer
Member # 2984
Profile Homepage #1
What the hell?

This is meant to pass the time until the official results are announced, yes?

How is this accomplished if the results will be withheld until the official results are announced?

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EncyclopaediaArchivesMembersRSS [Topic / Forum] • BlogPolarisNaNoWriMo
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Posts: 8752 | Registered: Wednesday, May 14 2003 07:00
Shaper
Member # 7472
Profile Homepage #2
It does pass the time, if only for the few minutes required to vote. The idea is to see if the public consensus matches the actual results.

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AmnesiaDileciaThe Empire's New GroveExpress Delivery
Twilight ValleyWitch HuntWhere the Rivers Meet
Posts: 2686 | Registered: Friday, September 8 2006 07:00
Infiltrator
Member # 5132
Profile Homepage #3
Uh, the results aren't released until May 7th. May 6th is just the last day to submit scores.

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Shaper
Member # 3442
Profile Homepage #4
WHY MUST YOU ALL CALL TV "TWILIGHT VALE"?!

Gah.

It's "Twilight Valley". I didn't accidently call it "Vale" anywhere as far as I can see...

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Posts: 2864 | Registered: Monday, September 8 2003 07:00
Lifecrafter
Member # 6193
Profile Homepage #5
You used to call it Twilight Vale way back when. (Before it was released-- back around October I think)

[ Tuesday, May 01, 2007 13:12: Message edited by: Lazarus. ]

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Agent
Member # 3364
Profile Homepage #6
What if I think the results will be different from my ranking? Do I vote what I ranked or do I vote what I think the outcome will be?

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Law Bringer
Member # 2984
Profile Homepage #7
Since we're not taking bets on the outcome, but only seeing what the non-judges think of the scenarios, I think putting your own preference is best.

Except for those scenarios you haven't played, of course. :P

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EncyclopaediaArchivesMembersRSS [Topic / Forum] • BlogPolarisNaNoWriMo
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Posts: 8752 | Registered: Wednesday, May 14 2003 07:00
Law Bringer
Member # 6489
Profile Homepage #8
I voted the same way I ranked them when I submitted my rankings.

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Shaper
Member # 3442
Profile Homepage #9
quote:
Originally written by Lazarus.:

You used to call it Twilight Vale way back when. (Before it was released-- back around October I think)
You people have way better memories than you should...

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Posts: 2864 | Registered: Monday, September 8 2003 07:00
Master
Member # 5977
Profile Homepage #10
quote:
Originally written by Sage:

quote:
Originally written by Lazarus.:

You used to call it Twilight Vale way back when. (Before it was released-- back around October I think)
You people have way better memories than you should...

But he is right, ya know. Twilight Vale for eternity, sorry Nik.

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Off With Their Heads
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Besides, Twilight Vale sounds better than Twilight Valley.

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Posts: 7968 | Registered: Saturday, February 28 2004 08:00
Shaper
Member # 3442
Profile Homepage #12
Well, I disagree. :P

Besides, "Vale" doesn't have the right number of syllables.

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Posts: 2864 | Registered: Monday, September 8 2003 07:00
Warrior
Member # 6096
Profile Homepage #13
quote:
Originally written by Nioca:

The idea is to see if the public consensus matches the actual results.
Actually, then the question should be "Choose which scenario you think SHOULD take each place."

Or else I might check the scores at the Lyceum and guess that Frostbite (or something else) will take the 1st place though I haven't played it.

(EDIT: OK, this was probably unnecessary to say at this point...)

[ Thursday, May 03, 2007 12:53: Message edited by: *Milu* ]
Posts: 77 | Registered: Sunday, July 10 2005 07:00
Shaper
Member # 7472
Profile Homepage #14
Alright, it's official! I really screwed up this poll! :P

In all seriousness, here's how the results of the poll turned out:

RANK ------- GENERAL CONSENSUS ------- ACTUAL RESULT
1st ------- Frostbite ------- Frostbite
2nd ------- Shades of Gray ------- Shades of Gray
3rd ------- Twilight Valley ------- Twilight Valley
4th ------- Express Delivery ------- Stairway
5th ----- The Empire's New Grove ---- Witch Hunt
6th ------- Settlers ------- Express Delivery
7th ------- Bonus Army ------- Bonus Army
8th ------- Settlers ------- Settlers
9th ------- Bonus Army ------- The Empire's New Grove
10th ------ Kill Prize, Win Ogre ----- Kill Prize, Win Ogre
As you can see, there's a few minor discrepancies in the data. Namely, BA and Settlers are repeated twice, and Witch Hunt and Stairway didn't even appear. There's not a whole lot I can do about that, though, so you're out of luck there.

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AmnesiaDileciaThe Empire's New GroveExpress Delivery
Twilight ValleyWitch HuntWhere the Rivers Meet
Posts: 2686 | Registered: Friday, September 8 2006 07:00
Law Bringer
Member # 2984
Profile Homepage #15
Wow. So not only did I place 6th for the judges, but the popular vote gives me 4th! I'm literally wiping tears of joy from my eyes right now. :)

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EncyclopaediaArchivesMembersRSS [Topic / Forum] • BlogPolarisNaNoWriMo
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair.
I have a love of woodwind instruments.
Posts: 8752 | Registered: Wednesday, May 14 2003 07:00
Lifecrafter
Member # 6193
Profile Homepage #16
Here are some different spins on the results.

Straight points rankings (10 points for a 1st place rank, 1 point for a last place rank)
1. Frostbite (218)
2. Shades of Gray (156)
3. Bonus Army (129)
4. Twilight Valley (120)
5. Express Delivery (111)
6. KPWO (91)
7. Stairway (90)
8. Empire's New Grove (80)
9. Settlers (79)
10. Witch Hunt (72)
Alright, but these rankings aren't totally fair. Some scenarios received more rankings than others, so they accrued more points even if they were last place rankings. Here's a list, with number of rankings in the first parentheses and the average score (total/number of rankings) in the next parentheses.
1. Shades of Gray (18)(8.66)
2. Frostbite (28)(7.78)
3. Twilight Valley (19)(6.3)
4. Express Delivery (18)(6.16)
5. Stairway (16)(5.6)
6. Settlers (16)(4.64)
7. Witch Hunt (16)(4.5)
8. Bonus Army (30)(4.3)
9. Empire's New Grove (20)(4)
10. KPWO (28)(3.25)
These seem more accurate than the previous set, but still aren't totally satisfactory. FB, BA, and KPWO each received significantly more votes than there were even voters (21 voters, BA received 30 votes) On the other side of the spectrum, Settlers, WH, and Stairway received 16 votes a piece.

This throws a fairly large wrench in the poll, and arguably invalidates it. Some thoughts: It seems like the more 'noticeable' scenarios got the most votes. FB, which won the contest and received the most 1st place votes, likewise received 7 'extra' votes. KPWO, clearly the worst scenario and the consensus last place finisher, also got 7 extra votes, 2 of which were for 1st place. BA is kind of a mystery. It received the most votes of any scenario (30) and these votes don't really show a clear place where the 'serious' voters thought it belonged (FB and KPWO both have large advantages in their 'correct' spots, the top and bottom respectively. I'd argue that a lot of the votes saying otherwise were joke votes). As for BA, all I can think of is that BA is very distinctive. A very 'TM' scenario, made in 12 hours and clearly the kind of scenario that will stick in your mind (Then again so is Stairway, so who knows)

No matter how you spin it, FB, SoG, and TV make up the top 3 spots (As expected). After that it gets kind of icky.

[ Sunday, May 06, 2007 09:57: Message edited by: Lazarus. ]

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Frostbite: Get It While It's...... Hot?
Posts: 900 | Registered: Monday, August 8 2005 07:00
Shaper
Member # 73
Profile #17
Curse my guilty conscience!

I admit it, I played none of the scenarios and voted for Bonus Army on every question. Subtract one vote from Bonus Army on each question and you can recalculate the results.

Sorry... *grumbles*

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