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The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #80
A random snippet relating primarily to the scary "hockey stick" shaped graph Al Gore and others love to scare us with.

From Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media:

"Canadian research scientist Steve McIntyre, whose expertise is in mineral exploration and author of numerous articles on the made up name 'global warming', the real science of 'climate change'; and the facts and myths which surround it. McIntyre has recently discovered evidence which destroys the hypothetical theories brought on by James Hansen (who made up the name 'global warming' in 1988) and Michael Mann who developed the famous 'hockey stick' chart convincing us so-called global warming is caused by human pollution.

Steve McIntyre is every bit the tenacious investigator as I wish to be in disclosing the fictional fabrication of this made up name 'global warming'. He has recently discovered evidence while inspecting historical temperature graphs showing a strange discontinuity, or "jump", in many regions all occurring around the time of January, 2000.

The graphs, which are used by the IPCC and all other global warming advocates, were created by NASA's Reto Ruedy and James Hansen. After discovering this obvious 'disconnect', McKintyre made contact with Hansen requesting further information as to his findings. James Hansen, the creator of this myth known as 'global warming' refused to provide McKintyre with the algorithm used to generate graph data. Not being surprised at Hansen's defensiveness, McKintyre reverse-engineered it. The result appeared to be a Y2K bug in the handling of the raw data, hence the discontinuity (or jump) around the time of January 2000.

McKintyre notified the Hansen and Ruedy of the bug; Ruedy replied and acknowledged the problem as an "oversight" that would be fixed in the next data refresh.

NASA has now silently released corrected figures, and the changes are truly astounding. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place, with 1921 being the third warmest year in recorded history. In fact, five of the ten warmest years on record now all occur before World War II.

The fact is we are in a "warming trend"; this will be followed by a "cooling trend". It always has been, and it always will be. This fictional depiction of the 1988 made up name 'global warming', of which most people have been conditioned to equate to human pollution, is nothing less than a fraud."

For those who accuse me of indifference, perhaps you did not read my concerns about internal combustion and pollution. I am deeply concerned about our health and welfare and values. There is a reckoning and correcting coming by necessity. What I am not so scared about is the icecaps melting in the next century and flooding the world.

More on the history of CO2 and climate shift in which melting ice caps was not an irreversible trend:

" The new data show that throughout millions of years, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels swung back and forth between about 250 parts per million, close to present-day levels, to more than 2,000 parts per million. At the same time, the southern ice sheets retreated as carbon dioxide rose and expanded again when levels fell, a pattern compatible with the idea that greenhouse gases caused the end of the late Paleozoic ice age.

"We can see a pattern of increasing carbon dioxide and increasing temperatures, with a series of rises and dips," Montanez said.

Scientists had assumed that as the climate warmed, a tipping point would be reached at which the ice sheets would melt rapidly and for good. Instead, the new data shows that the climate went back and forth between the extremes. But the overall trend was to warming, and by 260 million years ago, the ice sheets were gone.

Records of fossil plants show rapid changes in tropical plant communities as the climate changed. On scales of a few thousand years, lush forests of tree ferns in cool, wet periods alternated with conifers and other plants adapted to a harsher, drier and warmer climate.

"The Permian greenhouse is the only record we have of the transition from an ice age to an ice-free climate on a vegetated planet," Montanez said. But instead of a smooth shift, the transition occurred in a series of sharp swings between cold and hot conditions, occurring during perhaps a half-million to few million years.

Montanez pointed out the data does show that such a major change in climate will likely not proceed in small, gradual steps, but in a series of unstable, dramatic swings. While these data cover millions of years, similar events might take place during a much shorter time span.

"Perhaps this is the behavior one should expect when we go through a major climate transition," Montanez said."

We may go through some significant climate shift in this century, and possibly even the flipping of the magnetic poles of the earth, according to some, and who knows what that would entail. Bottom line is I see far larger forces at work governing our planetary climate than ourselves, and we're just going to see how we fare with what comes next. Meanwhile, Al Gore and the scaremongers can bankrupt half the nations of the world with the CO2 red herring while climate shifts wreak the real havoc. That is the threat of aligning with a false cause. Our resources are far from finite and stretched far enough. As are our liberties.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #62
Here's a quote from some another online forum on the topic:

"humans contribute approximately 6.5 gigatons CO2 annually to the atmosphere; dead and rotting plants and animals contribute about 150 gigatons annually; and the oceans contribute magnitudes more. I won’t even go into animals and the methane they produce. Whew!

The human contribution percentage is in the low single digits, yet we are responsible for the warming? How does that work?

Not to mention that roughly 80 percent of the warming experienced in the 20th century occured prior to 1940, followed by a 35 year cooling period, followed by further modest warming. The warming in the 20th century was roughly .7 degree C. During the entire period the CO2 concentrations were also increasing modestly. There seems to be a loose association but as we all know, logically, that does not imply causation necessarily.

Virtually all of these predictions are based on computer models. We do not currently understand the physics of how clouds work. We must “assume” cloud functions in the models. Anyone see a problem here? Is it just that I’m placing too much emphasis on clouds? After all, how could they possibly effect the climate?

I’ll cite Al Gore’s AIT quotation from Mark Twain: “It isn’t what you don’t know that’s the problem. It’s what you’re sure of that just ain’t so.” Anyone see the irony?"

...

I think clouds and water vapor are the loose cannon on deck in the mix of the matter. They are a huge factor, yet the least well pinned down, and the most assumed. I don't trust computer models for something as giant and complex as global climate in a heartbeat. They still can't predict weather all that reliably on the local scale over five days, but the global warming proponents gladly surrender their faith to climate models devised to make global predictions over decades? I find that laughable. Blind faith is alive and well in the age of science.

Our conceit and downfall is to place our trust in our machines to reliably predict and control our future—simply another religion/faith parallel in science that no one whose god is science is ever willing to concede. We may not have high priests telling us what's coming by looking at animal guts today, but we do have the sophisticated, sterile modern equivalent: computers and scientists. As amazing as they are, it should go without saying that they are far more prone to be wrong than right most of the time.

To place your faith in climate models as truth is essentially the same as living in fear of the prophecies of Revelation. This earth has been through untold dynamic change in the past. It is marvelously balanced to correct and maintain itself with feedback cycles. I may not understand them all, but I understand the principle and I believe in it. I trust in it.

I'm more concerned how we are poisoning our environments and bodies on an immediate level. I am disgusted that we have indulged a century and counting on an ancient, inefficient technology—the internal combustion engine, when computers have advance light years in half as much time. We should be doing better and being better stewards at this point. We could avoid much pollution, wars, and ugly city skylines among other things.

I said it before and I'll say it again. All people are relgious, because we need to believe in something/someone else to feel safe in this world. Whether one has any conscious awareness of this need is entirely independent of its reality. To face a true existential crisis, in which you finally come face to face with what you have hidden behind and protected yourself in life, to come to the place where you can question and put aside anything and everything others have handed you and realize you alone are ultimately responsible to make meaning for your own life, is in a way, where life begins.

Don't believe the hype. There is no shortage of people in all camps who seem to love having you be afraid. Fear is a crippler and a killer. We've got serious challenges facing us this century. I think we are going to hash very messily through them, suffer a lot because of them, and survive and emerge all the better as a result. It's a fascinating time to be alive.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #52
quote:
Originally written by Ephesos:

Synergy, you amaze me. You just completely switched the topic, didn't you.
How's that? I started out saying I didn't have much to say on the issue. I posted some of the main points from the book I read recently, which I no longer have on hand. I followed up with some relevant general comments on how I and we ultimately choose to place our faith in someone somewhere as being more correct than someone else. That point is relevant to nearly any controversial topic you can think of.

My post was ultimately a poll. I don't have a lot to say in way of debate because I am not well-versed enough in the topic to argue its many fine points ad nauseum—and for me, it would induce nausea. The general counterpoint to popular belief on the matter is what I wanted to put out. Anyone stimulated to entertain the possibility of another convenient or inconvenienet truth is free to read for themselves into the many nuts and bolts of the matter. This is a foolish environment in which to hope to prove or disprove weighty matters to anyone's satisfaction. It takes a lot more than anyone is able to put forth here. And besides, as I was just saying, it ultimately comes down to belief and faith in someone's point of view and veracity, rather than absolute proof in the true sense.

I have heard no one address the not unremarkable coincidence that other planets in our solar system have also in recent years been heating up, most observably, our neighbor Mars. If something is heating up and stirring up the other planets in our system, isn't it rather likely that same agency would be affecting ours similarly at the same time? It pretty much leaves the Sun as the only possibility, if it is not coincidental. That said, this too is all uncertain and controversial.

-S-

[ Thursday, August 16, 2007 22:32: Message edited by: Synergy ]

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #41
Kelandon makes a point, that in one form or another I often attempt to make, but I take it a step further. I don't trust anyone, in the sense that I am going to cast my lot with them 100%, including the book I read which I used to put out many of the basic points at the start of this thread. Why? Because everyone human is fallible, subjective, has an agenda consciously and more likely, below their own awareness. I neither reject outright anyone, nor embrace them outright. I find most things in life to be mixture. Most people have some truth/fact, and some error. It's our job to decide what balance is acceptable and how to find the babies in the bathwater. I seek to extract the gems and leave the rest. When I was younger, I had an all or nothing approach to truth...someone was all right or all wrong. Is that ever the case?

I think it is human nature to want to always believe there is a higher authority and power around us we can admire, fear, or be fascinated by-whether it is God, a religious leader, a scientific authority, a king, a politician. Conspiracy theorists have their dangerous godlike nemeses. We want to trust someone else and believe in someone else bigger and better than us. This is why I always see science as no less religious in many ways as religion. At some point, we all have to surrender to putting our faith in someone. I don' t know for an absolute fact that we ever went to the moon, for instance, when it comes down to it. I have no reason to believe we did not, but it is a belief I have that it is true what they claim and show. We have to cast our lot with someone ultimately, and even scientists have to trust a whole lot of other scientists and authorities.

Evaluating the reliability of any institution, person, or source may require something more along the lines of intuition than any kind of absolute, certain measure. These are the issues that fascinate me and are often behind putting controversial matter into a topic. It is as interesting to me to see how and why we choose sides, as what the nuts and bolts of the sides are. All people are religious, as I define it, including the aetheist. We all do the same thing in some fashion.

I'm curious what makes people so ready to embrace theories of climate so readily, when it is an incredibly complex and difficult thing to grasp, and we have been very much wrong in the recent past. Anyone recall that up till the late 70's, the prediction and concern was the new ice age about to unfold? Science is probably more often wrong than right, yet it amazes me how quickly masses seem ready to embrace the latest noisy idea.

DNA theory is being radically revised in recent years with the new field of epigenetics, yet people religiously promoted certain views of DNA as accepted fact up until the weight of science and literature made it clear it needed some significant revision. Science and the masses, in my opinion, grossly lack foresight, hindsight, and humility in the process. We imagine we are somehow better, wiser, more objective today than we were yesterday, and that is the human conceit I think keeps putting pie on our faces, yet we so little acknowledge how wrong we have been when the shift comes.

And so it goes.

-S-

[ Thursday, August 16, 2007 10:14: Message edited by: Synergy ]

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Insert Random Nethergate: Resurrection Questions Here in Nethergate
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #81
Wow, really, the fairy was dead on Day 5? I'm surprised about that...a lot. That seems much too early. I never encountered that.

Sylak can no longer be killed, but you could kill him up until one of the last betas...which basically messed up the game.

Food is really quite unuseful, except very early on in the game when eating some restores a significant portion of your health.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Pets in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #32
The power struggles in the house of Nicothodes must be ferocious to behold. That even includes the pets.

To the family of Kelandon...highly, well, utilitarian if not overly creative names. That said, though my cat's name was Baghira, I mostly called him "silly boy."

Andraste - your kitty looks like something straight out of the jungle with those stripes. Way cool cat.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
I Seek to Obtain the Meaningless Approbation of my Fellows in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #32
Why don't we send Iffy there at night to check it out?

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Away in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #3
This wouldn't have anything to do with exploratory surgery for embedded pencils, would it?

Best wishes. Be well.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #20
Like I said, let's see where scientific opinion falls in 5 years or so with increasing research being made on how sun affects climate, CO2, the ozone layer, and so forth. Popular opinion and those making the most noise is not the same thing as the majority of scientists studying climate embracing and promoting the CO2 theory at this point. That's the grand illusion, and too many people are sheep. Al Gore makes a scary video with dubious hockey-stick charts and dire predictions and Hollywood gives him awards and people get scared and riled.

Like Salmon pointed out, we are an adaptive species who has lived through dramatic climate shifts in the past, and those weren't caused by human activity either. Some are devastating. We'll survive. We're incredibly hardy and resourceful when pressed. It is a shame we will likely spend billions or trillions worldwide on CO2 concerns when we are facing other more dire concerns also based on climate shift.

I believe people might fight a startling number of serious scientists who do not support the popular theory on global warming. Popular theory alone should be a tip off, because if there is anything history demonstrates, it is how often the majority is dead wrong. Those scientiests might also take serious offense at being dismissed casually as being fringey sorts or driven by industrial agendas. Just because they are invisible to you right now, and aren't being given a pulpit due to not being proponents of popular theory, does not mean they are not there and good scientists. When you are buried by political push and noise, that's just it, you might be the majority in actuality, but you are not being heard over the vocal minority. You won't find many articles supporting CO2 theory in your most serious science journals either. There are increasing articles discussing how the sun drives our climate, CO2 increase, and the global warming we are currently experiencing.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Pets in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #20
Originally written by me:
quote:
My black cat died earlier this year.
Originally written by No more muffins:
quote:
Poor guy, what happened to him?
He was 17. He, like so many aged felines, succumbed to a sudden onset of renal failure. He was happy and healthy up till it hit, and it took all of 3 days for him to pass on peacefully. He just became very tired and weak and couldn't move at all the last day. He lived a good life. I miss him.

Ephesos revealed:

At home, my family has a hamster. Her name's Tula, and she's a Russian dwarf hamster, a breed of pet which I highly recommend. She's spoiled rotten by my mom...

Your mother smells of hamster!

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #11
That was last week. You missed it.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Pets in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #1
My black cat died earlier this year. He was a bit skittery and slender and velvety soft, but outside, despite his leanness, he seemed to win most of his catfights. Scrappy little guy.

Now, no pets, alas. As a teenager, I had lizards, mantises, ant lions, monarch butterfly caterpillars, fish, birds, hamsters, tarantulas, goats, ducks, collie dogs, cats...I love animals and most fascinate me.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #2
Agreed, though if it's not the great crisis we imagine, then we might not need to break the bank focusing on this issue when we need to be scrambling and investing to find alternate fuel sources, etc.

Also, I sort of botched up the structure of how I planned to lay out my post/poll, but can't edit it, because it's a poll. I guess it can be left as is, at this point. I meant to have the poll come first, and my comments follow. No big, I guess.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
The Sky Is Falling...? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #0
From the book thread. If it's to be engaged, I figured it was worthy of its own topic. I don't personally have a lot to say myself, but I wager this one goes incindiary in a hurry.

I am curious what present beliefs are about this issue, before reading my following post.

quote:
Originally written by root:

quote:
Originally written by Synergy:

The recently read book on how sun cycles are driving our climate, rather than the CO2 global warming myth, was excellent material that settled in scientific terms what I already knew was the case more generally. Anyone who relies on a politician to get their science makes me wonder.

-S-

...

How about relying on data to get our science?


Here's some basic data willfully ignored by Al Gore and others:

An evident correlation can be plainly shown in graphs between average earth temperature and CO2 levels in the atmosphere, this is true. What the CO2 alarmists bafflingly fail to point out or draw conclusions from is the simple clear fact that the increase in CO2 levels always follows the rise in temperature, not precedes it. A century+ ago when we were cranking massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere with early industrialization, there was no correlating rise in earth temperature.

CO2 comprises less than one percent of the earth's atmosphere. The oceans alone, or even animals put vastly more CO2 into the atmosphere yearly than human activity ever has. Water vapor in the atmosphere has a much more dramatic greenhouse effect than CO2. Coronal mass ejections from the sun and the resulting radiation they bombard the earth with causes increased water vapor when it strikes the oceans's surface. Increased water vapor causes increased atmospheric temperature. At an increased temperature, less CO2 is able to stay dissolved in the oceans and emerges subsequently into the atmosphere. Thus, CO2 is seen to rise in proportion in the atmosphere when the earth gets warmer. We've had the cart before the horse, willfully. When the science is this glaringly plain, and people like Al Gore ignore it for their agenda and religious belief system about human activity (basically it's as faith and ignorance oriented as your average religion), then it really makes me shake my head wryly. What's sad is how easy it is to dupe the masses with bad science and hype and fear-mongering. Proving my personal observation that people really get off on being scared.

Yes, the earth is warming at present. But we ain't causing it. We are so conceited, we puny little humans. Other planets in the solar system are known to be increasing in temperature in recent years as well. Hmmm. I suppose our CO2 traveled through space to heat them up too, being the godlike controllers of climate we are? Dramatic climate shifts are indeed occurring at present, and may cause some very significant challenges to many parts of the world in upcoming decades, but the evidence simply does not credibly support it is paltry CO2 inducing it.

It has become a political issue, and it is mostly the politically-motivated and politically-funded scientists who are making the noise at this point, not the hard scientists in the field. The startling reality is the majority of credible scientists studying the field have already realized there is a dearth of evidence linking CO2 to causing planetary warming and have abandoned promoting this fallacy. They are waiting for the emperor to be exposed as having no clothes and to get on with real science.

Don't believe the hype. I'm not sure what the motivation might be, except it is awfully flattering to one's concept of one's place in the universe to think you are affecting the global climate. If you look at how the term "global warming" was first promoted (and if I recall, coined) by Margaret Thatcher in the 80's using manipulated science to fight political battles with unions in England, the very origin of the concern is highly dubious. It began political and it will die political. In the meantime we may waste untold billions on a red herring, instead of preparing for real climate issues we may be facing: drought, water, shifts in crop-growing regions, devastating storms and hurricanes, and energy concerns we may be facing due to the era of threatening sun activity we are in. That huge sun we have drives our climate, and the climate of every planet in the solar system, ultimately. It should be a huge duh.

In five years, I predict the present hype is going to be embarrassingly swept aside, as the honest scientists not riding the wave of attention and the politically-funded cash cows of the CO2 global warming myth are finally heard again. You don't have to believe it now if you are already sold on the dramatic, fear-inducing hype about CO2. But I think it simply a matter of time till bad science is exposed and surrendered and public opinion shifts again.

There are other good reasons to make our environment cleaner and safer, but CO2 isn't the primary one.

I'm curious

Poll Information
This poll contains 1 question(s). 34 user(s) have voted.
You may not view the results of this poll without voting.

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
It's spelled GUARDIAN in Geneforge Series
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #28
I found that latest pun Thuryly amusing. Even if it wasn't a pun.

-S-

[ Wednesday, August 15, 2007 06:12: Message edited by: Synergy ]

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Traveling Internationally in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #1
What, they don't have math in NY?

-S-

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What was the last book that made you go "Wow"? in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #21
Toward A Psychology of Awakening by John Welwood. It caused me to revise many of my thoughts about human psychology, and spirituality for that matter. It was so rich, I felt like I needed to contemplate every chapter after reading, yet it was written in a very uncomplicated fashion.

The book on Jungian dream interpretation I am reading right now is good, but not wow good.

The recently read book on how sun cycles are driving our climate, rather than the CO2 global warming myth, was excellent material that settled in scientific terms what I already knew was the case more generally. Anyone who relies on a politician to get their science makes me wonder.

-S-

[ Tuesday, August 14, 2007 15:09: Message edited by: Synergy ]

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
N:R blessing pools in Nethergate
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #5
Don't be a double-dipper.

I'm almost certain it's a one-time improvement only, and nothing very noticeable at that.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Radiance in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #1
Not that the most exacting dissectors of the game have been able to discern. And in my experience, certainly not observably so. Too bad, huh? There is at least one optional sequence of areas in the game where it would have proven very handy.

-S-

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Sigh...a dilemma in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #7
When I was a kid and teen, I remember being bored way too much, and it was highly aggravating. I always felt like I was missing out on fun other people were having. One thing that is nicer about getting older and an adult is, if you're like me, you no longer find boredom to be a problem...more like, is there enough time for all my interests?

That's cool you get to backpack Europe in the future. There's that to look forward to. It helps if you are a fantatical collector of at least one thing. That sucks up a lot of time. It also can be a terrible vice...i'm not saying I recommend it.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Sigh...a dilemma in General
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #5
Good God, it's summer man. Do something active! It's exceedingly ill that long walks have become verboten. Is there a lake to swim in? Do you play tennis? Skate? Bike? Skateboard? If you have a lawn, you could play badminton or croquet for minimal investment. Get some folks together and play volleyball. Anywhere to hike where you live? Would such ventures be permitted in groups?

I'd hate to see you spend the rest of the summer watching TV or even reading, as wonderful as reading is. Did you read Harry Potter already?

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Dissapointment in Nethergate
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #11
Heh heh heh. Another one gets sucked in against his own protest.

Has anyone else been having this "movement problem"?

-S-

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Favorite Class in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #12
I hesitate to ask what dyaks are.

-S-

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Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00
Dissapointment in Nethergate
Shaper
Member # 6292
Profile #3
I, for one, would have been upset if the opening graphics and music had not been retained. This is a reworking of NG for more modern systems, not a sequel or reinterpretation. I want it to retain much of its old charm, while looking better and playing well.

N:R does have two very wicked new dungeons.

If you don't like some of the newer sprites, download Tyranicus' handy original sprites file found through the NG forum main page header. You get the original goofy yellow goblins and all.

I believe Jeff didn't make it easier to create custom characters at the beginning, because it would have been a lot of extra work. It's a small inconvenience to have to manually zero or adjust the default stats, but it's not that bad now really, is it?

I think Jeff did a worthy job with the tools on hand reasonably, for a cheap upgrade for those who once bought the original game.

-S-

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A4 ItemsA4 SingletonG4 ItemsG4 ForgingG4 Infiltrator NR Items The Lonely Celt
Posts: 2009 | Registered: Monday, September 12 2005 07:00

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