Profile for Or else o'erleap.

Error message

Deprecated function: implode(): Passing glue string after array is deprecated. Swap the parameters in drupal_get_feeds() (line 394 of /var/www/pied-piper.ermarian.net/includes/common.inc).

Recent posts

Pages

AuthorRecent posts
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Thursday, August 17 2006 17:18 Profile Homepage #73
If you are talking only about majority, than we're not disagreeing. I already said that boys are in the majority more often despite being no more prevalent in the overall population. There is a separate but related discussion of gender ratios.

I can't really decipher your appeal to probability, but I think it's a non-issue. What I do think is an issue is another statement:

quote:
I did the series math and determined that a single family does have an average 1:1 ratio between girls and boys. But an average has no meaning without the infinite number of trials from which to derive it.
The average ratio is the probability. The probability is the ratio that you will get from an infinite sample size. The real ratio from any finite sample size may deviate from the probability, but it should deviate in a bell curve with even tails above and below the expected outcome.

—Alorael, who thinks this argument has gone nowhere and requires either an arbitrary end or a third party to make it make senes.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
It's like PMS, only with numbers. in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Thursday, August 17 2006 17:01 Profile Homepage #9
We need a new game to get things moving. That or an exciting flamewar.

—Alorael, who has lost hope in banning people to get chatter. It doesn't seem to work anymore. Ed must have made it passé.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
It's like PMS, only with numbers. in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Thursday, August 17 2006 15:33 Profile Homepage #2
The top five are within 10 posts of each other. I think we're getting close to having to say very Homeric things.

...And then he made so many posts that it would take ten men to equal him, weak as men are now. Or laconic as men are now. And women, of course.

—Alorael, who really had to edit Aran's post. Firstly, it had some unreadable table issues. Secondly, abusing Aran's posts is a rare privilege.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Great Gifts For Your Love in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Thursday, August 17 2006 08:48 Profile Homepage #3
Spam is not approved.

—Alorael, who confesses to more ambivalent feelings about sudden returns to the clutches of Spiderweb. The topic dies anyway.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Wednesday, August 16 2006 22:33 Profile Homepage #70
Except it isn't right. The probability is always 1:1. It doesn't matter if you have one family or one million families. The difference is that the probability is a matter of simple statistics, so the smaller the sample size the greater the possible variation in actual ratio. That does not mean the probability changes.

Here's an analogy using coins. If you flip a coin once there is a 0% chance of getting the expected 1:1 ratio of heads or tails. You'll get only one or only the other. The more times you flip, the closer the observed ratio will be to 1:1. The probability is always 1:1.

Here's the question I tried to ask before: if each family acts independently of the others, and one family is skewed towards boys, how can an infinite number of families cause the skew to disappear? They should all share it.

—Alorael, who would like to know how you set up your simulated families/coin tosses.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Story LIne in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Wednesday, August 16 2006 20:43 Profile Homepage #8
At least one thing that you have asked or stated is true.

—Alorael, who really likes this game very much. He should have played it years ago.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Multiple Questions Relating to the End Of Avernum 1 in The Avernum Trilogy
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Wednesday, August 16 2006 20:08 Profile Homepage #4
9. Near the Waterfall Warrens. South of them, I think.

10. Yes, you'll need brooches to launch your daring attack on the Emperor. It is an extremely good idea to have all five.

[Edit: Don't let the tag hit[/i] you on the way out.]

—Alorael, who would not want to leave home without them. Or go home, as the case may be, except going home via the Final Gauntlet can actually go fine without brooches.

[ Wednesday, August 16, 2006 20:42: Message edited by: Tursing Slef ]
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Wednesday, August 16 2006 20:02 Profile Homepage #66
What you've said is that boys are more likely than girls to be in the majority if there's only one family. That's true, because there's a 50% chance of only one boy and a 25% chance of one of each, so girls are only the majority 25% of the time. But majority is not the same as number, because in that 25% girl majority is 12.5% 2 girls, 6.25% 3 girls, 3.125% 4 girls, and so on.

Put another way, if a single family really did skew towards boys, then two single families should still be skewed towards boys because each family is independent, and a thousand families should be a thousand independently skewed, boy-heavy families.

—Alorael, who somehow thinks this relates to the batters. Boys can be in the majority most of the time without actually being more likely overall. This is, in fact, the question he first answered. You'll have more sisters than brothers and more families with excess males than families with excess females, but you will have one boy for every girl.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Story LIne in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Wednesday, August 16 2006 19:51 Profile Homepage #6
quote:
Originally written by Conqueror of Geneforge:

and you can actually use the Geneforge.
Hold onto that thought!

—Alorael, who would not dream of spoiling anything. Just be aware that gloves are not provided.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Faustian theory of aging in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Wednesday, August 16 2006 08:30 Profile Homepage #8
I think it's worth pointing out that as a youngster, defined however you like, you don't know anything so learning is both obligatory and useful. As you get older and know more, you stop learning so you can apply what you know. Unfortunately, as you say, what you know doesn't stay true and accurate, so eventually you have to become obsolete or keeping learning. The more you know, the more you have to keep learning to keep up.

Eventually you end up on a treadmill just trying to stay current without being able to use what you're current in.

—Alorael, who is sure Vingean singularity cannot be far behind.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Spiderweb ? Metaphors For Life in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Wednesday, August 16 2006 08:24 Profile Homepage #19
quote:
Originally written in Toyking's signature:
List of things that are cool toys:
...
Helium
Alorael
Verbal ellipsis.

—Alorael, who is neither spaghetti nor a toy.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Tuesday, August 15 2006 17:47 Profile Homepage #55
Actually, for any n up to and including the limit as n approaches infinity, the ratio is still perfectly balanced.

—Alorael, who isn't quite sure how to go about accounting for the fact that most families stop at a certain arbitrary number of children but that there's no hard cap at n. [Edit: This is a question of how to approach the math in a more complicated case. In this case it is 50-50 no matter what you do.]

[ Tuesday, August 15, 2006 22:58: Message edited by: Spaghetti is a toy. ]
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Brief Geneforge 4 Update in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Tuesday, August 15 2006 15:08 Profile Homepage #19
I often find myself thinking that the missing sixth class is exactly what I'm playing as, only with less efficient use of skill points. Now I suspect that I'm about to run into a cold, hard wall of character misuse.

—Alorael, who wonders what Synergy's metaphor has to say about that. Some people just struggle their whole lives to be good at the things that just aren't in them and end up being worthless?
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Tuesday, August 15 2006 15:06 Profile Homepage #53
I missed the first statement of the question and addressed the not quite identical restatement. Stopping at boys gives you more sisters and fewer brothers, but you still have gender balance.

—Alorael, who is still looking for a casino that will allow him an infinite number of chances with the coin toss and a bank that will loan him an infinite amount of cash. No luck so far.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Tuesday, August 15 2006 08:42 Profile Homepage #49
In theory, as much as I have. I think my theory is unworkable.

—Alorael, who would probably be willing to pay a dollar in practice. That way he can be sure of a profit.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Tuesday, August 15 2006 07:14 Profile Homepage #47
[Edit:
quote:
Suppose the average probabilities of a baby being born male or female are equal
Nothing about conception in there. There could be evil alien embryos too and it would have no effect.]

If we consider male babies the stop codon of reproduction, here are the choices:

50%: 1 male
25%: 1 female, 1 male
12.5%: 2 female, 1 male
6.25%: 3 female, 1 male

And so on. Anyone can drop dead at any time, so there will be a few families with females and no males.

You get a disproportionate number of families with several female sisters and one brother, but you get far more males than females overall. If you don't consider male babies a perfect form of birth control then you also have a larger (non-zero) chance of getting, for instance, 2 males and 1 female or whatever, which reduces the probability of girl-heavy families.

—Alorael, who again inflicted poor wording but probably correct thinking upon Spiderweb. It was more or less asked for.

[ Tuesday, August 15, 2006 07:17: Message edited by: My Soul For Guilt ]
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Love in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Tuesday, August 15 2006 07:03 Profile Homepage #54
Kill yourself in a hospital. Be sure to do it in a way that doesn't cause damage to any interchangeable parts.

—Alorael, who wonders how many people would have to be watching and how amused they would have to be before dying for others' entertainment becomes a worthwhile altruistic cause.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Brief Geneforge 4 Update in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Monday, August 14 2006 21:29 Profile Homepage #16
Don't even bother putting points into Groveling or Grape Peeling as a human. You won't get anywhere.

—Alorael, who thinks he can avoid having the SEP goons sent to his house if he reveals that GF4 follows the Spiderweb tradition of flexible characters. Your servile is good at some things and bad at others, but you can still do everything that a human can do. Except talk back to the Shapers, because they're really not into that.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Love in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Monday, August 14 2006 17:08 Profile Homepage #50
I'd be willing to die for everyone if I had a guaranteed resurrection too.

—Alorael, who on a barely more serious note thinks that anyone willing to die for anyone else is likely to do so very quickly.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Idea for realsing creations in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Monday, August 14 2006 14:10 Profile Homepage #28
There are already several places where you have to defend things. There's no RTS involved. Turrets and other fixed defenses would require some time to set up, though, and time usually isn't something you get a lot of before defending.

—Alorael, who wishes the cowering civilians who are supposed to be protected at all costs would cower more and valiantly charge less.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Quick thought about boss battles in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Monday, August 14 2006 08:27 Profile Homepage #11
You usually get a fair warning after the first round in which you damage the invincible monster.

—Alorael, who managed to completely paralyze an enemy with stunning from damage in one round. He then spent the next ten rounds keeping up the stunning and running around looking for suspicious crystals, control panels, wires, or Drink Me potions.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Brief Geneforge 4 Update in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Sunday, August 13 2006 19:50 Profile Homepage #10
Both your wishes are sort of granted!

—Alorael, who can't be any more specific. He agreed not to be, and it's also funnier that way.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Idea for realsing creations in Geneforge 4: Rebellion
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Sunday, August 13 2006 17:12 Profile Homepage #24
Servant minds are immobile. So are turrets. So, for that matter, are spawners. That makes them all useless to the adventuring life. Being able to create living tools would make Unlock useless and mechanics rather less useful.

—Alorael, who still doesn't see what releasing creations is supposed to add. If the game were organized around it, maybe it would work, but that's not how Geneforge has been set up.
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00
Riddle Me This, Batman! in General
Or else o'erleap.
Law Bringer
Member # 335
 written Sunday, August 13 2006 09:14 Profile Homepage #25
On the first day Joe is on the receiving end of a large number, n, of pitches and hits only one. Bob swings once and misses once.

On day two Joe hits the only ball to come his way, which gives him a lovely average. Bob gets m hits but misses once. His average is lower.

Joe's average is higher for each day, but (m-1)/(m+1) > 2/(n+1) because their limits as m and n approach infinity are 1 and 0, respectively.

—Alorael, who could have said that better. He blames travel.

[ Sunday, August 13, 2006 09:15: Message edited by: Forty Days and Nights of Solitude ]
Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00

Pages