Paradox of Technology and Jobs.
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| Author | Topic: Paradox of Technology and Jobs. |
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Agent
Member # 2210
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written Monday, May 23 2005 05:35
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This is an idea which changes how the world should be looked at. Manufacturing is following the same pattern of employment as farming followed in the early twentieth century. Less and less people are required to work in order to produce more and more products. Technology has finally reached the point where we will continuously require less people to produce more goods. http://economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=770861 Suddenly we have a world where more and more people are service or knowledge workers. Yet, even this is being reduced by computer programmers who are designing machinery to reduce service workers. Service work is seen as expendable. Is everyone to be expendable, because almost all jobs will be non-essential. Banking, customer service, and other jobs are pretty flexible as to how many people are needed. Middle management is increasingly seen as an extra layer to be gotten rid of. This leaves technicians, scientists, and top executives as the only necessary element. The rest is expendable. I find this to be a bit disturbing. -------------------- Wasting your time and mine looking for a good laugh. Star Bright, Star Light, Oh I Wish I May, I Wish Might, Wish For One Star Tonight. Posts: 1084 | Registered: Thursday, November 7 2002 08:00 |
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Bob's Big Date
Member # 3151
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written Monday, May 23 2005 06:29
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Why? -------------------- The biggest, the baddest, and the fattest. Posts: 2367 | Registered: Friday, June 27 2003 07:00 |
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Shock Trooper
Member # 4214
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written Monday, May 23 2005 06:38
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I, also, do not see how this could sound disturbing. [ Monday, May 23, 2005 06:39: Message edited by: Mind ] Posts: 356 | Registered: Tuesday, April 6 2004 07:00 |
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Shaper
Member # 32
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written Monday, May 23 2005 07:31
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Perhaps because this will minimize the amount of jobs, and also those who can get jobs. Those who can't afford college now will be left jobless. They most certainly won't be able to get the education necessary at the rate college costs are growing. How do you propose they make a living? -------------------- Lt. Sullust Cogito Ergo Sum Polaris Posts: 2462 | Registered: Wednesday, October 3 2001 07:00 |
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Agent
Member # 2210
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written Monday, May 23 2005 08:10
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Service jobs pay less than manufacturing jobs. It creates an atmosphere where even highly educated people will pay huge amounts of money to be trained for low paying jobs. A debt economy. Plus service workers are much more expendable than manufacturing workers. Service work is often based on intangibles which aren't valued very much by people. With it becoming a requirement to go to college to work as a telephone operator, we indenture people with heavy debt. There will be less and less of a middle class. [ Monday, May 23, 2005 08:29: Message edited by: Duke of Toast ] -------------------- Wasting your time and mine looking for a good laugh. Star Bright, Star Light, Oh I Wish I May, I Wish Might, Wish For One Star Tonight. Posts: 1084 | Registered: Thursday, November 7 2002 08:00 |
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Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
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written Monday, May 23 2005 09:09
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Short term economic trends can be very bad (or very good, but then we take them for granted and don't think about them), but they are caused by innumerable things. There does not appear to be any long term trend towards higher unemployment or underemployment. New industries emerge as old ones get automated out of existence. In the long run we're all dead, as Keynes observed; but I think our children are at least as likely to be better of as to be worse off. -------------------- It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem. Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00 |
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Law Bringer
Member # 335
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written Monday, May 23 2005 09:12
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The problem is the continuing belief that everyone must be employed. If so many jobs are expendable, what we should be worrying about is finding ways to comfortably support people who are doing valuable work (valuable being the sticky term) that doesn't pay enough. —Alorael, who always finds it interesting that the commonly accepted result of a world where all labor is automated is a world where everyone is unhappy and starving. Aren't labor-saving devices supposed to be helpful, not harmful? Posts: 14579 | Registered: Saturday, December 1 2001 08:00 |
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BANNED
Member # 3477
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written Monday, May 23 2005 09:16
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the more i get to know humanity better the more i love animals -------------------- Avernum is as addictive as skribbane!!! Withdrawal symptoms are harsh so I just keep playing. Free skribbane at Wal-mart Posts: 296 | Registered: Monday, September 22 2003 07:00 |
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By Committee
Member # 4233
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written Monday, May 23 2005 09:40
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I don't believe that the highest paying jobs are manufacturing jobs. Consider all the high-cost services out there - legal, consulting, finance, etc. The trick is coping with the change, because it's inevitable. Posts: 2242 | Registered: Saturday, April 10 2004 07:00 |
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Electric Sheep One
Member # 3431
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written Monday, May 23 2005 11:35
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It's just that there are some very decent-paying jobs that don't require much book-learning. Lumberjacks, miners, autoworkers, steelworkers -- these folks can all make considerably more than university professors, even if they don't make as much as lawyers and doctors. But these jobs are dying out, and retraining can't usually offer anything that will pay more than half as much. The trickle-down effect on formerly affluent blue-collar communities that are losing more than half their income is severe. Whole ways of life are fading away. In the long run, if it's a matter of choosing whether or not my grandchildren will have to climb trees with chainsaws or grind coaldust deep underground, it seems not just inevitable but great that these dangerous jobs are becoming extinct. In the short term it's awfully tough on the highly skilled people who work very hard, and suddenly can't earn anywhere near what they're used to. They don't have to stay unemployed, but they are essentially doomed to being badly underemployed, compared to the careers they used to enjoy. -------------------- It is not enough to discover how things seem to seem. We must discover how things really seem. Posts: 3335 | Registered: Thursday, September 4 2003 07:00 |
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Law Bringer
Member # 2984
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written Monday, May 23 2005 13:41
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So what do you propose? Smash all the job-stealing machines? That's been tried before... -------------------- The Encyclopaedia Ermariana <-- Now a Wiki! "Polaris leers down from the black vault, winking hideously like an insane watching eye which strives to convey some strange message, yet recalls nothing save that it once had a message to convey." --- HP Lovecraft. "Really, Spiderweb is just a big, steaming pool of estrogen." --- Robin Posts: 8752 | Registered: Wednesday, May 14 2003 07:00 |
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Agent
Member # 2210
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written Monday, May 23 2005 14:15
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No, you stop creating rhetoric about how great our manufacturing and service jobs and start preparing people for the changes in the workplace. It is fun to watch people talk about how wonderful service jobs-- smile it is great Walmart is opening in your town instead of offering something meaningful. After all, when we have robotics and computers figured out we will get an AI secretary, a self-checkout supermarket, and a lot of service jobs will be gone as well... 10- 20 years from now, I can see service shrinking like manufacturing... The wonders of the future. With service gone that leaves knowledge work, technicians, managers, and artists. How do you value a workforce of ideas. Most people don't have the capacity to be idea workers... It would be a strange future. Figuring out how to justify peoples livelihoods will be fascinating. I already see some amazing justifications as is. [ Monday, May 23, 2005 14:28: Message edited by: Duke of Toast ] -------------------- Wasting your time and mine looking for a good laugh. Star Bright, Star Light, Oh I Wish I May, I Wish Might, Wish For One Star Tonight. Posts: 1084 | Registered: Thursday, November 7 2002 08:00 |
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...b10010b...
Member # 869
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written Monday, May 23 2005 15:41
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Or, alternatively, develop an economic system that doesn't limit people's access to resources based on their ability to produce something of value to others. Once the majority of people are no longer capable of producing anything of value to others better than machines can do it, this will happen more or less naturally. [ Monday, May 23, 2005 15:42: Message edited by: Thuryl ] -------------------- My BoE Page Bandwagons are fun! Roots Hunted! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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Apprentice
Member # 5667
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written Monday, May 23 2005 15:49
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No worries, society does exactly what it has done before, shorten the workweek. Work used to be a 60-80 hour per week activity, but with the rise in productivity brought about by technology, it was realized that no one needed to work that much, unless they werre driven to be no. 1. Along with shorter working hours comes more education, yes it's inevitable, long term trends do not lie. We live in a society where most everyone is in debt from personal spending, not from education expenses, so the fear of college tuition leading to a debt-economy is a red herring. Another undeniable result is the dumbing-down of education. If everyone needs a college degree just to "get by" then the pressure will be on colleges, especially public institutions, to make sure that everyone can get a degree. So rest easy, in the future everyone will have a degree, one that means less than it does today. :cool: -------------------- Whatever happens, happens. Posts: 48 | Registered: Monday, April 4 2005 07:00 |
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...b10010b...
Member # 869
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written Monday, May 23 2005 16:17
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quote:Or, you know, if they're interested in keeping their jobs. Most people I know are working close to 60 hours a week and getting paid for 40; the rest is accounted for with "voluntary" unpaid overtime, which is voluntary right up until the company needs to make layoffs and looks at who's recorded the fewest hours. quote:This is already happening in some fields. A plain bachelor's degree is not enough to get you a decent job in any of the natural sciences; you need postgraduate education just to get your foot in the door. -------------------- My BoE Page Bandwagons are fun! Roots Hunted! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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Master
Member # 4614
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written Monday, May 23 2005 17:23
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You'd think that with more and more advanced machines to do everything, people themselves will become barely more than an entity, living and doing everything they want instantly. Not to mention fabricated food, though that may be a looong way off. I think the world will end before that. -------------------- -ben4808 For those who love to spam: CSM Forums RIFQ Posts: 3360 | Registered: Friday, June 25 2004 07:00 |
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Law Bringer
Member # 2984
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 01:44
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quote:Very likely. And you know whose fault it is. :P quote:Thuryl: are you advocating - *gasp* - Communism? Mh... that sounds sensible. With that kind of automation, many scarce resources would become available to everyone. Wouldn't it be ironic if a system originally meant to be for the worker only started working once there are no more workers in that sense? -------------------- The Encyclopaedia Ermariana <-- Now a Wiki! "Polaris leers down from the black vault, winking hideously like an insane watching eye which strives to convey some strange message, yet recalls nothing save that it once had a message to convey." --- HP Lovecraft. "Really, Spiderweb is just a big, steaming pool of estrogen." --- Robin Posts: 8752 | Registered: Wednesday, May 14 2003 07:00 |
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...b10010b...
Member # 869
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 02:08
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Sure. It'll work just fine until the AIs start campaigning for equal rights. -------------------- My BoE Page Bandwagons are fun! Roots Hunted! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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Infiltrator
Member # 5806
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 02:40
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I would not be so worried about how robots would take over the service jobs. People like to have a real person taking their money, handling their phone bills and such. After all a robots that looks too like a human would be creepy. You would go around, thinking the rest of the day, "was it a robot or a human?" No, do not worry about such a future. But if such future would come, the demand for programmers and engineers would increase since the robots needs service and maintaining. -------------------- So, as the great Groxy, I have come back to be served by goblins. In the "main hall" of the goblin cave was a large totem which resembled very much of... me. Posts: 437 | Registered: Friday, May 13 2005 07:00 |
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...b10010b...
Member # 869
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 02:49
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quote:Oh, there's absolutely no reason to make them look like humans. Really, what you'd want for basic service situations is a kind of vending machine that you can hold a conversation with. Do you really care about human interaction at a supermarket or fast food outlet? quote:Simple robots that can fabricate copies of themselves from smaller components have already been created; there's no reason to suppose that more advanced ones wouldn't be able to conduct maintenance on themselves and others. Anyway, I really don't see how keeping humans working is supposed to be a good thing -- if work were enjoyable enough for most people to do it voluntarily, they wouldn't get paid for it. -------------------- My BoE Page Bandwagons are fun! Roots Hunted! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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By Committee
Member # 4233
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 04:55
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It's sad, but people will have to get with the program, get educated, and our (the US) workforce will have to turn to more information-based applications. We simply cannot compete with cheaper unskilled labor in other parts of the world. What's sad, though predictable, is that no one - government, employers, employees - is willing to take proactive measures to address this, largely because transition is expensive and uncertain. quote:I don't know, Thuryl - what was it they say about idle hands? As Tom Friedman at the NYT has pointed out time and time again in his column and books, large numbers of unemployed young men in the Middle East and elsewhere, disatisfied with their lot, are the ones going radical. [ Tuesday, May 24, 2005 04:58: Message edited by: Andrew Miller ] Posts: 2242 | Registered: Saturday, April 10 2004 07:00 |
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...b10010b...
Member # 869
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 05:08
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Compared to Western society, the more fundamentalist parts of the Middle East have a notable lack of interesting distractions. -------------------- My BoE Page Bandwagons are fun! Roots Hunted! Posts: 9973 | Registered: Saturday, March 30 2002 08:00 |
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Shock Trooper
Member # 4214
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 06:15
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quote:Tedious manual or mental labor can be automatized. Professions requiring a conscious pallium, at the other hand, can impossibly be automated. [ Tuesday, May 24, 2005 07:09: Message edited by: Mind ] Posts: 356 | Registered: Tuesday, April 6 2004 07:00 |
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Agent
Member # 2210
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 06:39
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Tedious mental labor can also be automated, answering machines and call forwarding systems have reduced the number of receptionists. Also generic routine functions like filing, sorting, etc. can be computerized reducing the number of secretaries in a corporation. Further, all of the backroom activities can be outsourced that are service or knowledge based. There will be a need for advanced thinking engineers, technicians, etc. However, as more people enter the service professions we will get lean service and efficiencies being applied to people like they are machinery in attempts to reduce the amount of people needed. http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/14/news/economy/lawyer_outsourcing/?cnn=yes [ Tuesday, May 24, 2005 06:43: Message edited by: Duke of Toast ] -------------------- Wasting your time and mine looking for a good laugh. Star Bright, Star Light, Oh I Wish I May, I Wish Might, Wish For One Star Tonight. Posts: 1084 | Registered: Thursday, November 7 2002 08:00 |
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? Man, ? Amazing
Member # 5755
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written Tuesday, May 24 2005 11:36
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Just to make all of us feel better. I recently read that the inclusion of China into the cadre of "First World" countries would effectively double the current extraction of world resources. They already export such useful things as deforestation and acid rain due to their wasteful manufacturing processes, so this will only get worse as time passes. There is much to be said for the technological advances, after all they made this BB possible :D but there is a serious long-term downside. Essentially we have created a world of "the Jones", and everyone is told (through marketing) that we must keep up. That is one of the current problems in the Middle-Eastern countries. The USA began exporting technically advanced commodities to a few folks which had previously counted wives and horses (not equally) as valuable property. Now they had F-15's and cars. This created an imbalance which was not corrected by anyone. It in turn created a generation of disaffected Muslims that saw that the real problem was Western culture creating unfairness in their system of life. They ARE a holy people, and don't necessarily blame their leaders for the vast array of gifts, but do wish to strike out against the inequity. There has been much written recently about the consolidation of food supply that has been brought on by technology, and there is a level of concern within the current US administration. New USDA programs are being developed that promote productive uses of small pieces of farmland. I know that is only one aspect of technology/jobs, but it does point in the opposite direction from IT trends. Back to my first point about doubling our resource use as more countries enter first world status. The planet cannot sustain this development, and as things become more "equally" distributed across political boundaries the result will be less for everyone. The promise of increasing wealth over generations will disappear and the hard reality of poverty will face a higher percentage of current first world families. I guess the final outcome hinges upon what aspect of civilization is most important to world leaders. Is it the human beings that they represent, or is it the huge multi :mad: national corporations that pay for their (re-)election campaigns. I dunno. :confused: Posts: 4114 | Registered: Monday, April 25 2005 07:00 |
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